One, I think we are winning. Although the Shia militia problem is a new wrinkle we must cope with. I think their killing spree has undermined our efforts to get the Sunni Arabs to essentially surrender.
Two, I am worried that our surge--though it may certainly work given the new strategy that seems likely to be implemented--lacks achievable metrics to judge it a success. While ultimate victory will depend on clamping down on violence in Iraq, I don't know if we are at the point where we can put our prestige on the line to do so in Baghdad. It is far easier to blow people up than to prevent people from being blown up by terrorists.
Three, if the surge does not work the proper response is to work the problem and do something else, or do the same thing longer, or something in between. The important thing is to focus on winning.
So I'm glad that Secretary Gates is focused on winning:
Defense Secretary Robert Gates asserted Tuesday the increase in U.S. forces in Iraq is "not the last chance" to succeed and conceded he's considering what steps to take if the buildup doesn't work.
"I would be irresponsible if I weren't thinking about what the alternatives might be," Gates told the Senate Armed Services Committee.
Prime Minister Maliki, reacting to violence before the long-telegraphed surge starts, seems to be working the problem, too:
Addressing Iraqi generals over what he called a "delay" in a plan seen as a last-ditch effort to prevent Iraq from pitching into all-out civil war, Maliki said: "I call on you to quickly finish the preparations so that we don't disappoint people."
The prime minister wants the Baghdad effort to get moving now.
Why this effort is the one that is a last effort to stop that always imminent civil war the anti-war press talks about is a mystery to me. But much of what they do is a mystery. They may very well be right that this time Iraq truly is on the verge of civil war, but their past pronouncements leave me no reason to think this is so.
But at least reporters don't seem to be asking the Iraqis what they will do if this plan fails--turning themselves over to the tender mercies of al Qaeda and the Baathists doesn't seem wise. The Iraqi government will work the problem.
Of course, if it ever comes to a real full-blown civil war, the Sunni Arabs of Iraq will simply be expelled or (for the ones too slow or stupid) killed.
One way or the other, we and the Iraqis will work the problem. I still think we can build a democracy in Iraq. Our enemies are fighting hard to stop us. But that is why they are enemies and not the League of Women Voters.
