We've gone through five phases in our war in Iraq.
Phase V was the Sadr threat of radical Shias sponsored by Iran. With previous threats defeated in the earlier phases, I assumed through much of 2006 that the Iraqi government would confront the Sadr threat and move Iraq forward. The Iraqi government failed to confront Sadr. That is the most relevant factor that means we must adjust to in order to move forward.
So now we are entering Phase VI of the war under a new plan outlined by the President today. This phase requires us to take down Sadr and requires an effort against the Sunni terrorists to prevent the operation from looking anti-Shia.
One thing I've worried about in the recent talk of a surge is whether after three years of saying we need more troops would we add troops but fail to recognize that we are in a new phase of fighting. We do recognize this. The outline of the President's plan states a couple things I want to emphasize (condensed and not pulled straight from outline):
Previous Assumptions: Primary challenge is a Sunni-based insurgency. Dialogue with insurgent groups will help reduce violence.
Current Assumption: Primary challenge is violent extremists from multiple communities; the center is eroding and sectarianism is spiking. Dialogue with insurgents has not improved security and may not produce strategic gains in current context.
Our government recognizes that we have a different enemy today. And the government recognizes that the Sunni insurgents are not coming to terms with the new government.
So we must fight the main new enemy--Sadr and the Shia puppets of Iran; and fight the lingering elements of the Sunni insurgency that stupidly resists (because they can't actually win) even when offered a new role in a new Iraq. These two actions will make it easier for reasonable Sunni Arabs to end their war and make it easier for Shias to accept that the Sunnis can be absorbed and not expelled (or killed).
The Marines in Anbar will not be idle while the fight in Baghdad takes place. The report also states some objectives are:
1. Defeat al-Qaida and its supporters and ensure that no terrorist safe haven exists in Iraq.
2. Support Iraqi efforts to quell sectarian violence in Baghdad andregain control over the capital.
3. Ensure the territorial integrity of Iraq and counter/limit destructive Iranian and Syrian activity in Iraq.
The Iraqi prime minister seems to be on board with the effort to take down Sadr as well as the Sunni terrorists:
An Iraqi general, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to disclose details of the plan, said a mainly Kurdish force would be sent into the Sadr City slum in northeast Baghdad, which serves as headquarters of the Mahdi Army.
The general said Kurds, who are Sunni but not Arab, were being used against the Shiite militia because soldiers from other Iraqi units were likely to refuse to fight fellow Shiites. An estimated 80 percent of Iraq's army is Shiite.
Under the new security plan, the general said, U.S. and Iraqi troops will sweep Baghdad neighborhoods in an effort to dislodge the Mahdi Army, as well as Sunni extremists — including al-Qaida in Iraq and two of its allied groups, the Ansar al-Sunnah Army and the Omar Brigade.
Iraqi and U.S. officials said Iraqi commanders will be put in charge of each of nine city districts. Each commander will operate independently of Iraqi military headquarters. ...
The Americans plan to put 400 to 600 U.S. soldiers in each district as a backup force, a senior Bush administration official said Wednesday. Others will be held in reserve throughout the capital to deploy quickly on the request of Iraqi commanders.
One senior U.S. official said al-Maliki agreed to stop protecting the Mahdi Army under pressure from both the U.S. and his fellow Iraqis.
We will corset the Iraqi forces (which was something I suggested earlier) with our troops to keep them on the line.
One thing from the White House outline that I wonder about is the statement we will:
Counter Iranian and Syrian action that threatens Coalition forces.
What does this mean? Especially in light of the earlier statment we will protect the territorial integrity of Iraq and counter/limit Syrian and Iranian intervention?
Does this mean that we will act defensively within Iraq by hitting the Syrian front in Anbar and taking down the Iranian front in Baghdad?
Or does this mean we will strike at Syria and Iran? The outline also states:
Deployment of security assets to the Gulf region.
What assets? Carriers? Missile-carrying ships? Aircraft? Is this an indication of offensive action?
Much needs to be clarified and this plan will take time through the summer to see how it unfolds.
But I am much more comfortable seeing these details than I was when all sorts of options were out there in speculation form. I feared we'd do something stupid. We are not.
There are risks involved, but this 2007 Phase VI plan does recognize we are in a new stage of the fight and not trying to solve the problems of 2004 and 2005.
