What is missing is a fourth alternative, both as a threat to Maliki and as an actual fallback if the surge fails. The Pentagon should be working on a sustainable Plan B whose major element would be not so much a drawdown of troops as a drawdown of risk to our troops. If we had zero American casualties a day, there would be as little need to withdraw from Iraq as there is to withdraw from the Balkans.
We need to find a redeployment strategy that maintains as much latent American strength as possible, but with minimal exposure. We say to Maliki: Let us down, and we dismantle the Green Zone, leave Baghdad and let you fend for yourself; we keep the airport and certain strategic bases in the area; we redeploy most of our forces to Kurdistan; we maintain a significant presence in Anbar province, where we are having success in our one-front war against al-Qaeda and the Baathists. Then we watch. You can have your Baghdad civil war without us. We will be around to pick up the pieces as best we can.
This is not a great option, but fallbacks never are. It does have the virtue of being better than all the others, if the surge fails. It has the additional virtue of increasing the chances that the surge will succeed.
Not a great option? This is a bad idea. With a line of communication going through central Iraq to Kuwait, just how do we supply tens of thousands of troops out in Anbar or up in the Kurdish region if we abandon our lines of supply?
Withdrawing to Kurdistan is a bad idea. It was bad when Andrew Sullivan liked it and it is bad even if Krauthammer suggests it. You can't just withdraw a little bit. We are either fighting to win or we are abandoning Iraq.
Plus, does anybody really believe that "picking up the pieces" will be easier than stopping the whole from breaking into pieces? The Congressional debate on that "escalation" would be interesting to say the least.
Focus on victory. If the President's plan doesn't work, the proper response is to look for what else will work. Work the problem!
And for God's sake, let's give our troops the time to carry out this plan. It can work.
