Target Set

So if Ahmadinejad is preparing to strike with nukes in the near future, what would his targets be?

First of all, Israel. Natch. Lots of Jews, don't you know, in a "one-bomb state." This is a no-brainer for your basic Islamist fanatic.

Then America. Great Satan and all that. Remember that Ahmadinejad did have a little something to do with that whole 1979 Embassy Takeover.

And Sunni Arabs. The Shia Persians aren't forgetting the First Gulf War in the 1980s against Sunni-run Iraq or the previous fourteen hundred years or so of violent history, either.

And Hell, who am I kidding? Shia Arabs, too. They are Arabs after all and so to Persians downright deserving of death. Shia Persians showed little restraint in killing Shia Iraqi soldiers in the 1980s.

The Kurds, too, are hated, but I think that the Kurds are not Nuke-worthy in Ahmadinejad's mind. For Europeans, I imagine Ahmadinejad has nothing but contempt. So mere Euros may not be worthy of nukes. Despite Iranian work on longer range missiles, I think Europe is off the target list now. Don't want to mess up the house you think you'll own before too long, eh?

So, Jews, Americans, and Arabs are the targets.

If Iran has one nuclear weapon to use, Ahmadinejad hits Tel Aviv. That should take care of that Jewish problem.

If Iran has two nuclear weapons, he hits Tel Aviv twice. Can't be too sure when you really, really hate Jews.

If Iran has three nuclear weapons, he hits Tel Aviv twice and Saudi Arabia's main oil export terminal at Ras Tanura. That gets Jews, Sunni Arabs, and hits America's oil vulnerability, possibly wrecking our economy in an indirect attack on us.

If Iran has four nuclear weapons, he hits Tel Aviv twice, Ras Tanura, and the main American base in Iraq--Balad Air Base--home to about 20,000 American servicemembers and located about 40 miles north of Baghdad. That gets Jews, Arabs, America's economy, kills American troops directly, and maybe kills some Shia Arabs--it will at least cow the Shia Arabs.

If Iran has five nuclear weapons, he hits Tel Aviv twice, Ras Tanura, Balad Air Base, and Port Said in Egypt at the northern end of the Suez Canal in order to hurt the other major Arab country that could resist Iran and hurt the Western economy a little more by blocking the Suez Canal. So he's killed Jews, Arabs, the Western economy, and our troops.

If Iran has six nuclear weapons, he hits Tel Aviv twice, Ras Tanura, Balad Air Base, Port Said, and Haifa in Israel, just to bring things back home.

Further, Ahmadinejad might need fewer nukes if he substitutes chemical weapons. By using lots of missiles and their air force in a last ditch air offensive regardless of cost, Iran could substitute chemicals for nukes in the attacks on Balad Air Base and Ras Tanura which are within aircraft and shorter range missile range, and one of the nukes intended for Tel Aviv.

And whether or not Ahmadinejad has used all the nukes he has, he should claim he has more to try and scare off retaliation. Ahmadinejad may feel he's taking one for the Islamist team but let's not be fanatics! If Iran can deter a counter-attack, they'll do it.

Of course, this won't be a blow that crushes us. Israel will incinerate the central Persian heartland with a nuclear counter-blow. And we'd have to nuke Iranian Pasdaran and leadership targets while trying to avoid too many civilian casualties. But we won't worry a whole lot depending on how many dead Americans there are. As I've said before, if we are ever nuked and don't respond with nuclear weapons, deterrence is dead. Who will be deterred by us ever again?

But the Iraq Study Group said we and Iran share a desire for peace and stability in the region. So my speculative target list is just silly to contemplate. Right?

Have a nice day.