I think that we're a long way from a civil war. But I also think that Card's right to warn people against too much division, and too little emphasis on our common interests as Americans. While I don't think that we're in danger of a civil war, I do think that our current political system is unhealthy, with polarization serving mostly as a tool for the folks in power to keep their bases in line, while they pursue agendas that are mostly self-serving. I hope that both the people and the press will make some conscious efforts to moderate the tone, and make that approach less effective.
I wish I could be so sure. I know Red Staters mocked the notion of the Left that they'd secede after the 2004 election (heck, I did a bit myself), but I don't have the same level of confidence that it cannot happen here. I think the Left is composed of true believers who think they've spent a generation being robbed by Republicans and Democratic Leadership Council types.
True believers are the ones who commit the most vicious crimes because deep down they believe you have to break a few million eggs to make your utopian omelette.
And recall that in 1860, when a presidential election prompted the south to secede, it took place after a decade of political realignment that left the North a Republican stronghold and the South a Democratic stronghold. Extreme political disagreements bolstered by physical separation made violence a real option to waiting for the next presidential election. Today, we see the Republicans becoming a party of the south while Democrats increase their stranglehold on the north. Should this geographic separation of our main political parties get worse and persist for long while we face hard debates over serious policy choices, I wouldn't be so quick to assume civil war here isn't possible.
Still, we are lucky that we are more than a North and a South. The Midwest and the West keep the electoral college in play so purely regional parties aren't a fact of life. Plus, even in the Northeast, Democratic strength is mostly in the cities. The by-county election results of 2004 put small blue enclaves in a sea of red. I certainly don't think we face the threat of civil war any time in the next generation. But if those by-county election results start to show regional bases for each party, I will start to worry.
In today's world, only Americans can ultimately defeat America. I hope Card is just a good storyteller and not a prophet.
