As Long As the Jihadis Are Cooperating

Somalia fortunes swing rapidly because various clans switch sides when one side appears on a roll. As the Islamic Courts Movement advanced earlier this year, clans defected to them until the official government was holding on by its teeth in Baidoa held up only by Ethiopian regulars.

With the jihadis massing to "finish off" the government, the Ethiopian forces jumped the massed jihadis making them easy targets. I still don't know if the Ethiopians managed to kill a lot off or if the jihadis and their clan allies just scattered or abandoned the cause still intact.

Now, the jihadis of the Islamic Courts Movement have lost their clan allies and have retreated south to a port somewhat near the Kenyan border.

In many ways this is a lot like the fighting in Afghanistan where tribal leaders first helped the Taliban and then defected away when we intervened. We could flip Afghanistan back because the Northern Alliance still lived on in a sliver of Afghanistan northeast of Kabul.

So with the jihadis massed, they are down but not out. And massed, they are still a target for the Ethiopians. The Ethiopians and their Somali government allies are sending thousands of troops south to take on the last stronghold:

Some 3,000 Muslim militiamen have taken a stand in the Indian Ocean port city of Kismayo, wedged between the Kenyan border and the Indian Ocean, and the U.S. government believes they may include four suspects in the 1998 bombings of the U.S. Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.

The Somali government and its Ethiopian allies hope to close the net before the al-Qaida suspects can slip out of the country.

"We are going to advance from different directions to try and encircle the city and force the Islamic group to retreat and so minimize the loss of civilians," government spokesman Abdirahman Dinari told The Associated Press. Government troops, backed by Ethiopian tanks and artillery, currently are in the town of Barava, with 75 miles between them and the Islamic fighters.

The jihadis should have scattered for safety. They could have waited out the Ethiopians and regrouped. Massing while the Ethiopians are still there are just giving the Ethiopians a chance to slam the jihadis and kill them in larger numbers. This will make it less likely that the situation can flip dramatically in a short period back towards the jihadis. Without massed jihadi forces to intimidate clans, the government is more likely to hold its clans together.

But hey, as long as the jihadis want to play by Ethiopia's rules, by all means let the game continue. The nominal Somali government might have the time to get its act together.