Trends in Iraq

Strategypage has an interesting post on Iraq developments.

The increased Iraqi civilian death toll is the result of the decline of Sunni resistance. With more areas seeing the Sunni forces declining, Shias can form militias for local defense and these tend to seek out Sunnis for revenge.

The Islamic terrorists, including the foreign jihadis, have not been affected by the militias. But intersetingly enough, the terrorists don't rely on suicide bombings like they used to. Instead they rent rooms and pack them with explosives. The failure to keep recruiting the faithful or to trick the dumb and sick into strapping bombs on is significant.

Iraqi and American commanders think the trends point to a defeat of the jihadis within a year.

The government is focusing on Shia militias in the south because in the center the militias may kill Sunnis but they do provide some defense against terrorists. The southern militias are purely a threat to the government.

The people are phoning in tips to identify terrorists at a higheer rate now, resulting in more damage to the terrorists--both Baathists and jihadis.

And finally, that number two man in al Qaeda the Iraqis picked up in June, al-Saeedi, was a commander in Iraq's secret police. Funny how that works.

I've believed since the summer of 2004 that the Iraqi Baathist resistance screwed up by throwing their lot in with the jihadis. They lost their chance to spark a national revolt against so-called occupation and have been losing ever since (though they recently tried to revive the idea of a national resistance). Being well armed, experienced, and well financed, the enemy has been able to kill lots of civilians--the easiest targets--even as they lose. It has been difficult for most Americans to see the trends behind the headlines that claim disaster.

But as our people see vidos of explosions in Baghdad, the Shias and Kurds who have been shut out of governing Iraq for centuries have been learning the ropes of governing and leading troops in combat during a war. On the job training is messy and halting but the Iraqis are making good progress in standing up an economy, a government, army, police forces, and security insititutions. The enemy forces--jihadis, Baathists, and Sunni "nationalists"--have not been able to stop this progress behind the shield of American and Coalition forces the past three years. They cannot win.

The question remains how long it will take for the Sunnis to finally admit defeat and whether the Shias will overlook the cruel and wanton bloodshed inflicted by some of the Sunnis and accept the Sunni surrender.

Oh, and whether the Iranians go for broke and try to stage an al Tet to spark a revolt led by their hand puppet Sadr.

And then just the ordinary and boring--but vital--work of fighting the culture of corruption and actually building a workable democracy. Will we retain faith in our founding principles long enough to help Iraqis achieve what we have? That is another challenge of course. Our war in Iraq can be counted a victory just for turning a hostile Iraq into an allied Iraq even if we don't get some form of democracy. But I think we will get that democracy and provide an example for the Arab world that will pay dividends in future decades.

But first we have to defeat the Iraqi Sunni resistance by guns, bribery, or whatever it takes. But that will happen. Have patience.