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Sunday, September 03, 2006

Dying Hard

A couple weeks ago I noted reports that Sunni resistance in Anbar was growing while we focused on Baghdad.

This is disturbing but Baghdad is more important in the short run. And I noted that Anbar was not controlled by Saddam even, so we need to have patience until the Iraqi government can move against Sunnis who still fight out west.

Strategypage notes that al Qaeda is growing in strength out west--but that is because Sunni leaders are starting to move toward the government, leaving the fewer Sunnis who still want to fight little choice but to join al Qaeda:


Al Qaeda may be the most potent hostile group left in western Iraq (Anbar Province), and it seems to be expanding its influence. Apparently the government/Coalition effort to stamp out anti-government fighters in the province was particularly successful against tribal and warlord controlled groups, but did not seriously injure Al Qaeda, which not only suffered relatively lightly, but attracted some dissidents from tribes that were willing to negotiate with the government. Al Qaeda is the organization of last resort for diehard Islamic terrorists.

So even though the trends in Anbar are good with more Sunni tribal leaders moving toward ending their fight to regain power, those Sunnis who want to fight must go to al Qaeda by default. Thus al Qaeda's strengthening reflects the decline of other centers of resistance. These thugs will not join the government and will have to be killed.

Al Anbar will likely be the last battlefield inside Iraq (barring an Iranian-directed uprising) and it will be an ugly battle. But it will also be beyond the range of comfort for Baghdad-based Western reporters, so the fight should be more manageable from a public relations standpoint. Ideally, it will also be led by Iraqi forces, lessening the appeal to reporters.

Meanwhile, the Iraqi government has scored a significant victory against those al Qaeda thugs by capturing the man believed responsible for the February Sammara bombing:


Hamed Jumaa Farid al-Saeedi, known as Abu Humam or Abu Rana, was arrested a few days ago, Mouwaffak al-Rubaie said, adding that his arrest also led to the capture or death of 11 other top al-Qaida in Iraq figures and nine lower-level members.

He was the second most important al-Qaida in Iraq leader after Abu Ayyub al-Masri, al-Rubaie said. Al-Masri succeeded Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who was killed in a U.S. airstrike north of Baghdad on June 7.

"We believe that al-Qaida in Iraq suffers from a serious leadership crisis. Our troops have dealt fatal and painful blows to this organization," the security adviser said.


That he was caught rather than killed means someobody likely fingered him. The fact that Iraqis got him is a great, too. It is a much better sign than if we had nabbed him. And the terrorsit leader is talking too, apparently. When the thug leaders lack the fortitude to die rather than talk, we can be pretty sure that enemy confidence in winning is getting lower. That may explain why al Qaeda is switching to Plan B.

Have patience, people. One cannot predict when we will win; but if we hold firm, this war will be won.

UPDATE: Al Saeedi was arrested on June 19th. I wonder if this was the result of information gained when Zarqawi was killed less than two weeks earlier. It is good that the Iraqis could keep this quiet for this long to give them the chance to round up more based on his confessions.