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Thursday, August 31, 2006

Cluttering the Deck

In addition to purely diplomatic motives, China wants non-Taiwanese away from Taiwan just in case China launches an invasion. Bad to have foreigners get in the way and get killed whose home governments might object. Even worse is having foreing militaries on Taiwan who might actually fight at Taiwan's side and drag in the foreign country as a whole. Clearing the deck for action makes a lot of sense.

So Singapore's downgrading of military ties with Taiwan is a success for China. One less potential complication:

Singapore's operations in Taiwan remain shrouded in secrecy. While in Taiwan, Singaporean troops wear Taiwanese army uniforms distinguishable only by a separate insignia. Several former Singapore soldiers have confirmed this practice, Huxley writes.

And defense analysts estimate the number of troops sent to Taiwan for training has been slashed by half to about 7,000 annually. The bulk of Singapore's army now goes to Australia, where up to 6,600 soldiers train early year at Shoalwater Bay in Queensland.


You know, maybe Taiwan should set up their own smaller version of our OpFor by hiring some military affairs company (like MPRI, which planned the Croation Operation Storm in 1995 that beat the Serbs) to run one and rent time cheap to the militaries of other countries to run battalions through the training facilities. Singapore may be lost, but who knows who else might want to get some well-trained units. Heck, we could run Stryker battalions through such a Taiwanese NTC after flying them in!

Taiwan needs to add complications to Peking's calculations even as China tries to isolate the right side of the equation (and island). Clutter the deck, so to speak. While we are the most important complication, followed by Japan, that can keep China off of Taiwan, every little additional bit of complication is important to Taiwan when we don't know how China is calculating the risks of invading.