It is time to squeeze North Korea a little tighter:
This was the best of all outcomes. The test likely provided a wealth of intelligence data for the U.S. The failure of the test was also a great blow to the prestige of the North Korean regime and its leader, Kim Jong-il in particular. Furthermore, Pyongyang's aggressive provocation threw eggs on the faces of Beijing and Seoul that have propped up the North Korean regime.
The stage is now set for a decisive action from the United States. Clearly, any military strike against North Korea is out of question, and would, in any case, abdicate the now accrued diplomatic advantages. Instead, the U.S. should press for an immediate quarantine of North Korea to prevent the outflow of ballistic missile and nuclear technology and the inflow of energy and food that sustain the regime. And, for a change, Pyongyang will have to give up something to end the quarantine.
Japan, already angered by past North Korean provocations, will join the U.S. immediately. Given a sufficient demonstration of willpower from Washington, Seoul will, in the end, not object to this policy (in any case, if it were to do so, the present South Korean administration will implode finally, leaving the way for a conservative administration next year). A tougher bargain will be required to bring Moscow to the fold, but given its relatively low level of leverage and interest in North Korea, it will not be impossible.
That leaves, as always, Beijing. To say that China is embarrassed by North Korea's latest provocation is an understatement. Thus it is now the time to press Beijing hard, for once. North Korea's ballistic missile and nuclear threat would not be where it is today were it not for Beijing, and the U.S. should finally make China take responsibility -- by agreeing to the quarantine. And the United States should make the continued Sino-American economic relationship contingent on China acting like a mature great power by exercising this responsibility.
If we squeeze them hard enough and long enough, they will break and fall. As long as we aren't too abrupt to provoke North Korea into a war that will be very destructive to us and our friends, this is the only strategy that can work. North Korea is an isolated nutcase regime that does not present a wider threat as Iran does with the peddling of radical Islamism mixed with nuclear weapons. There are no dedicated Kimunists around the globe ready to kill for Pyongyang.
Yes, North Korea guarantees that it dies if it launches a war, but we will still pay a high price for the victory. So take the opportunity North Korea gave us to put a little more pressure on them.
They may die quietly yet.
