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Saturday, July 15, 2006

National Interest

I'm used to the Saudis reflexively condemning Israel in any dispute no matter what.

But the Saudis reacted differently in the latest crisis:

"The (Saudi Kingdom) sees that it is time for those elements to alone shoulder the full responsibility for this irresponsible behavior and that the burden of ending the crisis falls on them alone," the statement said.

We welcomed this position:

President Bush July 14 welcomed a statement from Saudi Arabia characterizing Hizballah’s provocation of Israel as “irresponsible” and saying the Lebanese militant group’s actions “are exposing Arab nations and their gains to grave dangers without these nations having a say in the matter.”

With Iran looming over the Gulf; jihadis fighting the royal family; and large numbers of Shias in Saudi Arabia's oil-producing region, it appears that an Iran-engineered crisis using a Shia terror group could not be supported by the Saudis.

So the Israelis may have some limited time to go after Hizbollah and the Iranians in Lebanon since on the narrow issue of Hizbollah, the Israelis, Saudis, Egyptians, and Jordanians all have interest in taking them down and their hurting their Iranian sponsors.

Take the bandaid off fast. I don't assume the Saudis can resist public pressure to side with Hizbollah for very long.

UPDATE: Strategypage notes the non-response of Moslems and describes the Sunni Arab calculations on Lebanon:

Notably subdued is the response from the Arab countries; it's mostly been mumbling about the plight of the Palestinians and such. Could this mean that the principal Arab leaders are not all that unhappy to see Hizbollah get it in the neck? After all, most of the Arabs are Sunni, while Hizbollah and Iran are Shia. The exception that proves the rule is Syria, which has a Shia leadership. But most Arabs fear Iran, not because most Iranians are Shia, but because Iranians are not Arabs. Iran has been the regional superpower for over three thousand years. Iran is building nuclear weapons. Iran is backing Shia Arab factions in Iraq that would support turning Iraq into an Iranian ally.


Still, fear the Shias of Iran versus hating Jews? Israel would be wise to move fast. The Europeans don't seem to have the same balancing calculations going on, after all.