We hope to teach them the big picture--don't mess with us; but the Chinese are just interested in learning how to do their job--fighting us--so they focus on details.
Time after time, I read about how the Chinese are inferior to us. How they could not win a full-blown war with us. How they are inferior in naval and possibly air power to the Japanes alone. And every time I link to one of thesepieces, I agree with the power assessments--and say they are irrelevant to the Chinese decision-makers.
The Chinese could conclude, like the Japanese in 1941 convinced themselves, that the power disparity between themselves and America could be overcome with surprise, skill, valor, planning, and our own weaknesses that they'd exploit. A quick offensive would knock us back on our heels and keep us from using our raw power. And Japan did not have nukes.
So this article about how the Chinese perceive us is not comforting:
A recently completed study by the Rand Corporation (Chinese Responses to U.S. Military Transformation and Implications for the Department of Defense) shows that China is watching the United States closely and is devoting significant resources toward the development of highly technical, novel approaches to both defense and the projection of power. The potential for a conflict with the United States over the status of Taiwan is the driving force for Chinese military planning, the study says.
America's preoccupation with Iraq and Afghanistan seems to have accelerated U.S. military transformation and advancement, "Yet the concomitant acceleration of the pace of Chinese military modernization also suggests that the Chinese are not dissuaded by U.S. military prowess, but instead are driven by a range of strategic and military motivations to continue their efforts apace," says the Rand report.
China is not looking at our military and just throwing up its 2 billion hands and crying it is no use trying to compete. They are looking for ways to beat us despite our superiority.
I wouldn't want to trade places with China. But to say they could figure out a way to beat us in limited scenarios is not to say we are or will be inferior to China in power. Remember, China doesn't have to land in Los Angeles and march to the Mississippi River to beat us in a war. We can lose on their door step if we decide the price to win is too high--and then our power superiority just won't matter.
Take the Chinese seriously. Deny them the knowledge gained by military-to-military exchanges that could persuade them that they know enough about us to nullify our advantages. We aren't scaring them--we're educating them.
And remember, if they think they can win even if they cannot by objective standards, there will be a war. And once war starts between two nuclear powers, who can say how that will develop?
