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Tuesday, February 28, 2006

Jockeying for Position

Back in the fall, I wondered whether we would strike Iran first to stop them from getting nuclear weapons or whether Iran would strike us first in Iraq in order to gain the final amount of time to go nuclear.

The Samarra terror attack seemed to fit right into Ahmadinejad's religious views and his nuclear goals. And of course, the idiot Sadr was keeping his place at his master's side.

So when Belmont Club relates that the Iranians are planning to strike soon in a so-called Nauroz offensive and that they are moving al Qaeda assets, I have to worry again. The Asia Times piece said:

Security contacts have told Asia Times Online that several al-Qaeda members have been moved from detention centers to safe houses run by Iranian intelligence near Tehran. The aim of these people in Iran is to establish a chain of anti-US resistance groups that will take the offensive before the West makes its expected move against Tehran. ... Many believe that the US is planning preemptive military action against Iran.

On the other hand, the source Wretchard cites says the Samarra strike has torn apart the Sunni-Shia alliance the Iranians were counting on to be the base of the anti-American onslaught.

Will this cause the Iranians to think of a conventional strike on Basra instead?

Or will we actually strike first--or a very close second?