As the United States has limited control over Chinese or Taiwanese foreign policy, averting conflict can only occur by shifting American policy in Carpenter's view. Therefore, he recommends that the American policymakers view Taiwan as but a peripheral issue to the United States, not the vital concern it is often characterized as. As such, America should continue selling defensive arms to Taiwan to allow it to defend itself but explicitly rescind any American security guarantee to the island. To put it simply, we care about Taiwan enough to sell them arms but not enough to put American sons and daughters in harm's way.
Carpenter is really missing the point. Deciding to "characterize" the Taiwan issue as peripheral rather than vital is all well and good when you, as Carpenter does, think that America should not address any threat to us at all. But shouldn't we actually analyze the issue to decide if the threat is real or not?
I happen to think of Taiwan as a sort of canary in the coal mine type of thing. Yes, we have a moral obligation to provide Taiwan with the means to defend themselves. And we even have a moral obligation to intervene, I believe, at some level to help the Taiwanese defend themselves.
But what I mean by the canary comment is that if the Chinese attack Taiwan and capture the island this represents a worrying level of hostility and capability. A China willing and capable of launching an attack on Taiwan despite our commitment to Taiwanese independence and freedom is a China willing and able to take on America, Japan, and other nations in the region over other issues. We know what they intend on Taiwan. The Chinese say it often enough. But if doing what they say only depends on Peking getting the means to carry out their intent, a lot of nations in the area need to seriously worry about China.
So this means we must fight over Taiwan regardless of Taiwanese views. Even if the Taiwanese believe we will rescue them and so refuse to adequately defend themselves or psychologically prepare themselves to fight China, we will need to fight.
Taiwanese who believe we will rescue them no matter how ill-prepared they are should not draw comfort from this. Since the question of America fighting over Taiwan is at its core a matter of national security for us and not just a moral commitment to help a democracy, if Taiwan will not or cannot defend themselves, we will fight just to increase the price China must pay to take Taiwan. Taiwan will be a battlefield and not an ally to be defended. We must do this so that we don't appear to be a paper tiger and discourage other allies currently willing and able to defend themselves from remaining our allies after China takes Taiwan. Just because the Taiwanese might not want to defend their democracy doesn't mean we should let their defeat undermine other nations who might wish to defend themselves if only they see us willing to help them.
Losing well and making sure China doesn't win easily to discourage future adventures will be our objective if we cannot help Taiwan defend itself.
Again, I don't panic over China's potential rise. China will not become a peer competitor to us in my lifetime if ever. They may even crumble. Heck, they may even become a democracy. Who knows?
But they don't need to be equivalent in power to be a real threat to our interests. They certainly don't need to be as strong as us to be a threat to their neighbors.
But Carpenter doesn't care. Nothing is of interest to us, according to him. So he has only one solution to every foreign threat or potential threat. We are doomed and should just surrender now. Get used to losing and learn to love it. We are supposed to just draw a line 3 miles off our coasts and generously inform potential enemies that we don't care about anything outside those lines. Go to town, guys. Friends? You're on your own. This approach pretty much guarantees that eventually we'll see those threats sailing three miles off our coasts one day.
Carpenter sees a very strange set of nails around the globe. While I would be rude to suggest he is an actual "tool," I will say that he only seems to have one tool to use--a very strange hammer that only pounds on America.
