Strategypage notes that the urge for revenge among the newly liberated Shias is very strong:
While most Iraqis want democracy (or any form of government that will perform better than the last one), many Iraqis also want revenge. Saddam and his cronies killed, maimed, imprisoned or impoverished millions of Iraqis. Many victims and survivors want revenge. Tribal and religious leaders are having a hard time getting their followers to back off from attempts at payback. Islamic terrorists like Abu Musab al Zarqawi, are hoping these revenge attacks, encouraged by al Qaedas continued attacks on Shia Arabs, will trigger a civil war. What al Zarqawi refuses to believe is that the civil war has been going on since 2003, and that more and more Sunni Arabs have decided that their side has lost. Moreover, many of these Sunni Arab leaders have also decided that al Zarqawi and his al Qaeda butchers are the enemy.
Many Sunnis are starting to come over to the government, but not enough to end the bloody terror attacks. The speed that the Sunnis join the government is crucial to their survival and prosperity because, as this article notes, our influence over the new Iraqi government has already peaked:
As the weight of the Shiite Islamist victory in Iraq's election is still being calculated, US influence in the country - in reconstruction, security, and politics - is steadily receding.The article goes on to note some experts with some very old thinking:
What then are America's best hopes for steering Iraq in a direction favorable to US interests? Some analysts say the US may reach out to its erstwhile enemies - the Sunnis.
I don't think there is any chance of us doing anything other than keeping the Sunnis from suffering atrocities in revenge attacks. We will not ally with them. Old school suspicions of Shias in the academic and diplomatic world still is strong.
And keep in mind that the Shias want revenge. And I don't blame them. I think they will settle for justice with trials of Baathists for their crimes. Coddling the Sunnis, or cutting deals to balance the Shias, however, risks driving the Shias and Kurds to seek extra-legal vengeance on their former tormenters. We would risk democracy by refusing to help provide justice for Saddam's many crimes.
We should not and won't save the Sunnis from their own stupidity. It's up to them to earn their place in the new Iraq. And right now there is a race between our withdrawal and the Sunni's coming to their senses. I have no idea how that race will end. The Sunnis of Iraq haven't impressed me with their powers of reasoning thus far.
