According to this letter, after we abandon Iraq the jihadis see the second task is to:
Establish an Islamic authority or amirate, then develop it and support it until it achieves the level of a caliphate- over as much territory as you can to spread its power in Iraq, i.e., in Sunni areas, is in order to fill the void stemming from the departure of the Americans, immediately upon their exit and before un-Islamic forces attempt to fill this void, whether those whom the Americans will leave behind them, or those among the un-Islamic forces who will try to jump at taking power.
The Baathists think they are using the jihadis to regain power but the jihadis have another plan altogether and it involves un-Islamic Baathists getting their heads chopped. Really, the Baathists are lucky we will win and not them. The jihadis wouldn't have been as kind as our side will be. Pretty poor post-war planning if you ask me.
The letter also shows that some jihadis realize that they have attacked the wrong targets in Iraq and have just alienated the people they are claiming to liberate:
If we are in agreement that the victory of Islam and the establishment of a caliphate in the manner of the Prophet will not be achieved except through jihad against the apostate rulers and their removal, then this goal will not be accomplished by the mujahed movement while it is cut off from public support, even if the Jihadist movement pursues the method of sudden overthrow. This is because such an overthrow would not take place without some minimum of popular support and some condition of public discontent which offers the mujahed movement what it needs in terms of capabilities in the quickest fashion.
Zawahiri discusses that the bloody swathe the jihadis are cutting through Iraq's Shia community and says it is counter-productive. The Shias rallied to our side and the Sunnis began to be disgusted and fearful of the Shia reaction.
Indeed, last summer while we were hip deep in turning back the insurgent and jihadi offensives and some seemed deeply worried, I wrote that the enemy's choice of a wrong center of gravity would lose them this war:
I think the main reason for our success is that the Islamists with their foreign jihadis have screwed things up for the Baathists. That is, if the insurgents (or regime remnants or whatever you want to call them) had been able to target Americans and our allies without other complications, the vast majority of Iraqis might have decided to sit out the war as neutrals and just watch passively to see who will win. Absent a really ruthless American campaign, we would never win if we fought enemies in a sea of apathy that slowly turned against us as the violence continued.
The Islamists screwed up this possible path to Baathist victory. The Zarqawi memo highlighted the idea that the Islamists wanted to target the Shias in order to force the Sunnis to rise up out of fear. Then there would be a nice civil war and the Islamists would have their happy hunting ground of chaos in which to kill Americans. With high enough casualties and really bad press coverage, we might then have pulled out in defeat. Defeating us somewhere—anywhere—is the Islamist goal—not Islamizing Iraq in particular. Remember the reports that al Qaeda was turning their focus on Iraq at the expense of Afghanistan? The fight is the focus. Note, too, that the memo says that the Islamists would have to find another battleground if they cannot win in Iraq. The Islamists may not have had a choice since they don’t number very many. How could they take on the Army and Marines directly? Attacking civilians is a heck of a lot easier.
Zawahiri seems to recognize that they have lost sight of the fact that America is their enemy. Instead, they went on a Shia-killing spree. As the saying goes, business before pleasure, and the Sunni jihadis forgot that lesson:
One of the most important factors of success is that you don't let your eyes lose sight of the target, and that it should stand before you always. Otherwise you deviate from the general line through a policy of reaction. And this is a lifetime's experience, and I will not conceal from you the fact that we suffered a lot through following this policy of reaction, then we suffered a lot another time because we tried to return to the original line.
And the gruesome killing spree has done more than just turned Iraqis against them, but has begun to turn Moslem world opinion against the jihadis.
The letter argues that trying to match us in combat will fail and that only by fighting in a manner that allows the media to portray them favorably can bring them victory (Hmm, I think our media got this letter quite a while ago ...). He writes:
However, despite all of this, I say to you: that we are in a battle, and that more than half of this battle is taking place in the battlefield of the media. And that we are in a media battle in a race for the hearts and minds of our Umma. And that however far our capabilities reach, they will never be equal to one thousandth of the capabilities of the kingdom of Satan that is waging war on us.
One of the more interesting things is that the jihadis no longer talk of bugging out of Iraq if democracy comes to Iraq. Now, winning in Iraq is the basis of their plans for world domination. Why? Earlier, the jihadis argued that they'd have to leave Iraq once democracy came to Iraq and find another battlefield. Then, just fighting us somewhere was step one. Now the jihadis are determined to stay and fight in Iraq.
I never bought the idea that we deliberately invaded and liberated Iraq in a deliberate attempt to create a battlefield to fight the jihadis. If we had we'd have behaved differently in the immediate months following the capture of Baghdad. But this is what Iraq has become by the jihadis' own decisions. And in spite of the fact that the jihadis judged that success could not be achieved once democracy came to Iraq, the jihadis think they can win in Iraq.
Perhaps there are no greener pastures. Perhaps the jihadis considered moving the battleground elsewhere but they could see no alternative to fighting in Iraq. I mean, no alternative other than halting their jihad and living in peace. When thugs decide that they will continue to fight in a particular place even though they believed they would not be able to win there, can we say they are in a quagmire?
So let's sum up, then.
One, the jihadis are fighting a brutal war that does not shield those they are "liberating" and by their violence drove them to our side.
Two, the jihadis have a war plan and post-war plan that are at best delusional in their assumptions (Step One: Acquire an all-powerful device that defeats America. All else follows logically).
Three, the jihadis have been sucked into a losing war that they don't see a way of exiting (insert "quagmire" reference here).
And four, the jihadis have alienated their traditional allies in the Sunni world (see the Pew poll).
Dang, you'd think that unilateral, warmongering cowboys were running the jihad.
Boy, this sure looks like the writ of indictment that the anti-war side flings at the pro-war side again and again. All we need is some Fallujah-based Al Aburton company that has gotten no-bid contracts for long scimitars because of Zawahiri connections, and we will have a perfect mirror image.
Lord knows, we've made mistakes in Iraq. That happens in war. But our mistakes have been relatively minor in historic context. Further, we've reacted and adapted quite well and rather speedily. But the enemy has made the biggest mistakes. And the enemy doesn't seem like it will adapt any time soon.
Sadly, our much smaller mistakes are amplified by our press while only Allah knows how much our enemy is hurt. Little bits like the Zawahiri letter come out on occasion but it is far tougher to see the enemy's errors. And I assume that most of what we learn is kept classified.
We are winning. And our enemies are doing a remarkable job of losing the way our anti-war side says we are losing. At some point you have to wonder how hard they have to try to be that wrong. Oh yeah, they rely on our vaunted press.
UPDATE: Oh wait, there's a fifth mistake the jihadis are making that really make their war a mirror image of the fantasy errors our anti-war side claims. Stage 4 according to the letter is go to war with Israel. So aren't the jihadis making a mistake by failing to solve their version of the Palestinian problem before fighting in Iraq? Fascinating. Actually, the Palestinians-first objection to toppling Saddam was always a mystery to me. No Moslem country ever put a problem on hold until the Palestinian problem was solved. Indeed, the Iranians often claimed during the Iran-Iraq War that they were going to go to Jerusalem through Baghdad. Must Be the Neo-Jihadis fault.
