Iran is a little upset at the talk of referring them to the UNSC over their drive to acquire nuclear weapons. Really, Iran should just ignore it and let the international community struggle mightily and noisily to come up with a wrist slap that the diplomats in Brussels will portray as tough.
But instead the Iranians may over-react and draw a sterner reaction:
"If Iran's case is sent to the Security Council, we will respond by many ways, for example by holding back on oil sales," the president told the Dubai-based newspaper.
Iran pumps about 4 million barrels daily, making it the second-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries after Saudi Arabia. Crude oil exports normally account for about 80 percent of Iran's hard currency income, and an oil official last month projected revenues from oil exports this year at $43 billion.
If Iran does nothing, Europe will do nothing. If Iran stops the oil, Europe will notice. And they might then make quiet sniffling noises about how maybe America should do something.
And Iran, which kind of needs those oil exports to keep their population reasonably subdued (this article doesn't note that Iran imports gasoline, which requires money and access) would find that it is harming itself by halting oil exports. America might do something about those gasoline imports if push comes to shove.
During the Iran-Iraq War, Iran found that it needed the Gulf to remain open to oil traffic far more than did Iraq. Iraq could borrow money while Iran needed to earn it each day. Does Iran really think they are in a better position now?
Iran could carry out this threat. And if Iran does, the world's oil supplies will decrease by some small amount temporarily until other states ramp up exports to take advantage of higher prices. But Iran would take a really big hit to their income and their gasoline supplies.
I think Iran would regret it first. Although perhaps I under-estimate how fast the Euros could buckle and surrender.
