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Saturday, July 09, 2005

Oh Hogwash

Terrorists in Iraq murdered the Egyptian ambassador to Iraq and this article says the terrorists have succeeded in dividing Iraq and Egypt:

The crisis may have sown the seeds of distrust between Iraq's Shiite-led government and Egypt — an Arab powerhouse whose goodwill Iraq needs.

Oh hogwash. First of all, there are plenty of seeds of distrust to grow between a Sunni state and a Shia-majority state.

Second, Iraq and Egypt have long been rivals for leadership in the Arab world. Egypt, by its size, military power, and confrontation with Israel, was the leader of the Arab world until agreeing to peace with Israel. Then Iraq attempted to take advantage of Egypt's dethroning to become the leader. Being the Sunni Arab world's shield and sword against Shia Persian Iran was supposed to vault them to the top. Stalemate gave Egypt a chance to gain rehabilitation in the Arab world by helping Iraq. Iraq's decision to confront the US led to two defeats that made Iraq barely the leader of Iraq alone. With a democratic Iraq allied to the US emerging, Iraq could supplant Egypt in power and prestige. If the Arab world moves toward freedom, democracy, and hopefully economic progress while Egypt stays mired in authoritarian rule and stagnation, Egypt will lose out again.

So don't forget history when looking at today's events. Heck, it may be that Egypt's hesitant moves toward democracy are being taken to avoid losing out to a democratic Iraq for the leadership role of the Arab world.

Of course, free and democratic Arab states may not make that title as important as it once was when autocrats ran the board.