Fear is the Beginning of Wisdom

This isn't in response to any particular article or event, just something I've pondered.

Opponents of the Iraq War seem to claim that all bad things have followed from overthrowing Saddam's dangerous and murderous regime. I mean, they'll admit that "of course" Saddam was "bad," but don't then draw any conclusions from that. It's just boiler plate before getting into the meat of whatever accusation they have.

In particluar, it is common for opponents of the Iraq War to claim that our invasion has prompted the Iranian mullahs and North Korea's Pillsbury Nuke Boy to pursue nuclear weapons as a guarantee that we won't invade them. Of course, this ignores the fact that these countries have nuclear programs going back decades. Thankfully this is just ignorance, because if a country really could go from nothing to nukes in two years since the invasion, we are in for a world of nuclear proliferation hurt. How would we ever get ironclad proof of nuclear capabilities to justify preemption if the process of getting nukes is really this fast?

Opponents also deny that Libya gave up its nuclear program because of the Iraq War. This, the opponents of the war say, was the result of patient diplomacy that started before the Iraq War. Sure, the Italian prime minister recounted that Khadaffi said he came clean to avoid Saddam's fate, but perhaps Khadaffi was posturing to gain good will from the Bush administration. Surely it is a coincidence that negotiations that were fruitless prior to dragging Saddam from a spider hole succeeded after that signal event.

I suppose that these things are possible. We can't really know for sure what Libya would have done in the absence of the Iraq War. I think Libya would have kept going forward on nukes. Opponents of the Iraq War think Libya would have given them up as the result of diplomacy. But who knows? I admit it is unknowable.

There is one thing we know for sure, however. The Iraq War did not inspire Khadaffi to accelerate nuclear weapons development to avoid being a target of American military might. This should be somewhat puzzling for the anti-war side since they are so sure that the Iraq War caused Iran and North Korea to commit themselves to going nuclear as a defensive move.

So, what inspired Libya to give up its nuclear ambitions rather than accelerate them?