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Monday, March 14, 2005

Is It Still the Classic Mistake if China Starts a Land War in Asia?

The Chinese have alarmed the region with their transparent efforts to put the color of law into their planned invasion of a free and democratic Taiwan:

China's threat Monday to oppose Taiwanese independence with military force triggered a call for peaceful dialogue from Japan and a discussion of Australia's treaty obligations should a war break out. But Russia and Pakistan supported Beijing's new legislation.

Japan and Australia look to be on our side of the issue.

Pakistan and Russia look to be on China's side.

I'll take this line up any day. Plus add India, Singapore, South Korea, New Zealand, and Thailand to our side. Toss in a good chunk of the Cental Asian "Stans" where we have bases plus Afghanistan. Maybe Malaya, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

Add North Korea (until they collapse; though when they do take South Korea off our our side too since Seoul will be quite busy coping) and Burma to the Chinese side. Oh, and Europe sort of as they sell arms to Peking.

What kind of picture does this paint? A China nearly surrounded by our forces and those of our allies. China has a shrinking Russia selling them arms and a shaky Pakistan held in check by India even as the Indian navy teams up with the US Navy to cut off China's oil imports at the source. But hey, they'll always have Burma, right?

We have a neutral official Europe at our rear with some European states friendly to us. Weak Mexico and Canada on our borders that don't tie down any of our forces. And only Cuba and Venezuela to be an annoyance further south. Out on the front lines we have allies in a nice southern arc from the Stans to Japan. In time, Russia will realize its error of arming a large China that may want to regains some of Russia's sparsely populated far eastern provinces seized from China when China was weak. Then China will be completely screwed with enemies 360 and 24/7.

China is stone cold stupid to be pushing for a crisis over Taiwan when our spine is stiff enough to embolden China's many natural enemies into standing up to Peking's bullying.

I'm just not that impressed with the results of the wisdom that comes from having an ancient civilization. Looks like rookie mistakes to me. But what do I know? I'm only 43.