Hundreds of protesters waving Lebanese flags returned to central Beirut Tuesday to demand Syria quit Lebanon and the United States welcomed what it called moves to restore democracy in Lebanon.
These are dangerous times.
I can only assume that our words of encouragement are not given lightly. After our experience with the Shias in Iraq, would we turn our backs on them should the Syrians or their proxies decide that a blood bath is their way out of this problem?
Because this is a serious problem for Damascus. Lebanon is an important--perhaps key--pillar for their regime. Too much money is involved to give up Lebanon lightly. And the terrorists that call Lebanon their base are too important to Damascus to give up (and too dangerous to welcome into Syria in too large numbers).
Syria does have options. The Lebanese are not united in their drive to push Syria out:
Most of the opposition protesters are Maronite Christians, who have long opposed Syria's role in Lebanon, Druze and some Sunni Muslims. Shi'ite Muslims, Lebanon's largest community, have mainly stayed away from the anti-Syrian rallies.
I would hope that some line of reasoning that shows Syria harming Iraq's Shias could have some impact on Lebanon's Shias. If some significant number of Shias can be brought into the protests, then using the Shias as Syrian proxies becomes more difficult.
The only thing that could stay Syria's hand long enough for the Syrians to fail in Lebanon is the pending missile deals with Russia. Could Russia go ahead with a major arms deal if the Syrians go postal on the Lebanese? The young Assad is not his father and he may prove to be insufficiently ruthless--or at least he may refrain from making the decision to be ruthless in time to suppress this Cedar Spring.
The question remains, what will we do if the Syrians send in the goons? If we do nothing, will our calls for democracy elsewhere fall on deaf ears? These are heady times and dangerous times as well.
I'd feel better if the Lebanese weren't camped out in the unfortunately named Martyr's Square.
