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Thursday, February 06, 2003

Timeline

The 101st Airborne Division has been ordered to deploy. I earlier read it would take a month to move the division overseas. Are we really going to wait a month or more? The Turkish decision to vote on February 18 on letting Americans into Turkey seems to back this as does the rumor that we want to wait until after Moslem pilgrims return from Saudi Arabia.

I keep approaching this from the point that it is better to go sooner than later. I know we can't go until the supplies and troops are in place, but I also think we have alerted far more than we need in order to make it look like a long pipeline stretching back to America has to flow completely to the Gulf before we go to war. We will go before all those troops are there.

To assume that we can go while pilgrims are still in Mecca is not too unreasonable. The Saudis tolerated throngs of Iranians during the Iran-Iraq War and did not hesitate to suppress riots with much bloodshed. For Turkey, we could be feinting a great deal and plan to fly in the 10th Mountain Division directly into those airbases we are setting up in Kurdish regions. After Turkey agrees to troops, we could flow troops in for occupation duty. Based on these objections alone, we could go soon after February 14th. But the 101st is a major problem for me. I've assumed we want this division for crossing the Euphrates and for its ability to jump long distances to outflank enemies. Going sooner would require us to leave the 101st behind. Could be, I suppose. I'd be surprised. But then, so too would the Iraqis.

On to Baghdad.