Turkish Front

Turkey will let us send 15,000 ground troops to southeastern Turkey for the northern front. This should be enough for the 2-brigade 10th Mountain Division plus special forces and logistics troops that I figured would constitute our force up there. Since such a force is too small and light to march down the highway toward Tikrit, I expect it will go after the al Qaeda remnants that have carved out a pocket of territory in Kurdish lands near Iran.

Of course, if we actually send heavy forces to Turkey by rail, I guess that changes this analysis. And if we really are going after the northern oil fields to keep the Iraqis from torching them, maybe we do need to drive on Mosul. I'd rather have the Turks do it though. They do have incentive to keep those oil fields working so that they can earn revenue from the pipeline that goes through their country.

But how much of their oil export capacity do we really need to secure and put on line in the first couple years? We will secure the southern fields and we can hardly just start pumping out everything like crazy even if we secured all of the fields. So I just don't know whether the concerns for the northern fields are just a feint. After all, one small and light division is hardly an invasion force even with control of the air.