Invasion When?

So now the news on MSNBC says we have 65,000 troops in the Gulf. That number has gone up dramatically even though all the deployment announcements seem to be for units yet to go.

Could the February invasion date be right?

Globalsecurity.org says 1st Cavalry (a heavy division) and 101st Airborne (Airmobile) will join 1st Armored Division and 1st Infantry Division (Mechanized) in Germany for maneuvers in mid-January. If they do exercise they would need some time to recover and be deployed to the Gulf. This makes it seem like a February date is more likely. Yet maybe it will only be a command post exercise that keeps the troops ready to roll. After all, I think it has been a long time since we've been able to do large scale exercises in Germany. I doubt four divisions will be tearing up the German countryside. The airlift would 'only' have to lift the equipment of the 101st since the heavy armor is either in the Gulf or on ships on the way.

Could we really be counting on a clean Blix report on January 27? I heard one report at the end of December that the "real" inspections going on in Iraq are being done by Special Forces personnel. Could we be waiting to contrast the UN report with what we find? As much as I hate delaying the invasion, such a move would jam the protests of the UN-fetishists back down their throats.

Mostly I have questions now with no real answers to reply to what the news stories imply and say-invasion in February.

But I still don't believe it. I'd still go sooner even though my guess on December 27 was wrong.

Getting the troops of four divisions (some ten brigades) gathered in Germany, where the Germans have already agreed that we can use our bases there, places them in quick shuttle range of the Gulf. They could go to Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, or Kuwait, depending on where the equipment is. It's supposed to be in Kuwait for the most part or on the way, so Turkey seems out except for the 101st. McCaffrey (who commanded 24th Infantry (now 3rd Infantry) in 1991) thinks the 101st will go to Turkey in order to protect the Kurds; but it makes no sense to me to task one of our most mobile divisions (and one very useful for river crossings) for an essentially defensive task. It must be in the main effort.

It just worries me that we are waiting. Stop giving our enemies time to counter our invasion.
Let's get on to Baghdad already!