Are the Ground Pounders Worried?

According to the Washington Post, the Army and Marine commanders are worried that the government is assuming a cakewalk. They worry we have insufficient forces to start the invasion. Are the civilian leaders underprepared?

The psychological warfare is intensifying, the President will soon declare Iraq in material breach, reservists are quietly getting notice, and suddenly there are lots of reports about how we won’t invade until January, February, or March, with the British saying, puleeze, the Americans could fight this summer. And now the ground pounders are worried we don’t have enough to invade with overwhelming force yet.

We go before the end of the year.

If we are going in a shoestring, we should worry. I just don’t think we are. Are we underestimating the Iraqis? We know they can inflict casualties by fighting hard in the cities and using chemical weapons. We are clearly training hard to face both threats. And speed of attack will blunt the threat of both Iraqi options. Even if the Iraqi regular army fights, most is facing the Kurds (and the 70,000 Turks who will invade too) and is away from our troops. I bet Saddam keeps it that way. As a force to stop us, the regulars are too ill-trusted and ill-equipped to be more than speed bumps. They would be more of a challenge to us if we had to take them prisoner and feed them. The ones around Basra are there just to keep the Iranians out and the Shias down. When the Marines head their way, will they really think they can do better than 1991? And if we haven’t made contact with commanders down there to defect or die, I’d be shocked.

The Republican Guards and their Special Republican Guard uber lords are the key fighting forces and I don’t believe anybody assumes they will break on impact. Maybe they will, but those 100,000 or so troops have to be assumed loyal. I think we are preparing for a tough fight and if we are wrong—great. I’d rather be accused of over-preparing for an easy war than getting stopped because we thought victory would be easy. I can’t believe Franks would have agreed to assume little resistance. As a soldier, he would have to salute and follow orders of course; but would the civilians tell the troops who will die that they don’t need what they think they need? After the shame of refusing to send a pittance of heavy armor to Somalia prior to the Black Hawk Down battle? Five or six divisions’ worth of troops should be enough to smash any Republican Guards that try to stop us. And to handle the regulars should they fight.

Countdown to Invasion: nine days.