Friday, June 19, 2020

Good News and Bad News About China

Don't over-estimate Chinese power and potential:

[As] the conventional wisdom goes, the Chinese make everything; Americans just pack the stuff into Amazon boxes. Beijing plays the long game; we can’t think beyond the next election or quarterly earnings report. China cracked down hard to grapple with the coronavirus and now appears to be on the mend; the U.S. is still languishing, as the death toll mounts and anti-racism protests grip the country.

Well, maybe not: With China, things aren’t always what they seem. Many apparent Chinese strengths—including education, manufacturing, and technology—aren’t quite as strong as many Americans believe. And neither are China’s chances of surpassing the U.S., something policy makers and pundits in Washington should keep in mind as they fret over Beijing’s ostensibly growing might.

China may not be able to escape the "middle income trap" and vault into the first ranks of the world.

They're preaching to the choir here at The Dignified Rant. I've doubted whether China can surpass our per-capita GDP or even surpass our gross GDP.

Of course, as the author suggests, even if China never matches America as a global peer competitor it will be a threat with only the power to dominate their region.

And there is also the problem that comes from the Chinese believing they are more powerful than they are.

I wish the author had addressed rather than just mentioned the popular belief that China has special long-range planning skills ("plays the long game")--which I reject.