Tuesday, June 23, 2020

Egypt Edges Toward Intervention in Libya

Egypt says it has a legitimate interest in directly intervening in Libya to prevent threats from spilling over into Egypt:

"Any direct intervention from the Egyptian state has now acquired international legitimacy," Sisi told an audience after inspecting military units at an air base near the border with Libya.

He said Egypt has the right to defend itself after receiving "direct threats" from "terrorist militias and mercenaries" supported by foreign countries, in an apparent reference to some armed groups loyal to the GNA and supported by Turkey.

The main aims of any intervention would include protecting Egypt's 1,200-km (746-mile) western border, helping achieve a ceasefire, and restoring stability and peace in Libya, he said.

Before his speech, Sisi addressed several air force pilots and special forces personnel at the base, telling them: "Be prepared to carry out any mission, here inside our borders - or if necessary, outside our borders."

The Saudis and the UAE back Egypt, who backs Hiftar based in the east and who was pushed back from the gates of Tripoli where the western GNA government was holding out.

That's what I thought 9 years ago.

Strategypage writes that Turkey will be paid with oil money or oil by the GNA. Which would require a bigger offensive than has happened thus far.

Would Hiftar's LNA have to make similar promises to Egypt?

And if Egypt goes in, according to Strategypage?

Can Egyptian troops defeat Syrian Arab mercenaries working for Turkey? Despite greater numbers, M1 tanks and F-16 fighters, the Egyptian army has not been training regularly, most of the troops are conscripts and the most experienced Egyptian soldiers are fighting ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) in Sinai. That’s a small portion of the Egyptian army and most Egyptian army units are of questionable effectiveness in a fight.

Egypt is taking a chance sending troops into Libya. Despite that this is something the Egyptian military has been studying for over fifty years.

Of course, Egypt would have the support of LNA troops. And the firepower the Egyptians could bring to support the LNA would be substantial. Assuming the Egyptians don't run out of ammunition. Would Congress try to cut off American resupply to Egypt?

How effective would Turkey's Syrian mercenaries be in a fight away from Tripoli?

And now that Turkey is fighting for their side in Libya, and turned the tide around Tripoli because Hiftar took his damned sweet time trying to take Tripoli--giving his enemies the precious gift of time--Egypt has more motivation in resisting their former imperial power from returning to the region.

We'll see if Egypt sends in special forces and weapons plus support from artillery and air power to keep the LNA in control of Sirte, points east, and the southern oil fields, while blockading GNA ports; or whether Egypt does that and also sends in a division or more to try to get it over with and drive all the way to Tripoli.

I wonder what Saudi Arabia would bankroll to stop their Turkish rival for dominance in the Arab world?

UPDATE: Hiftar (Haftar) calls for help:

The speaker of Libya's east-based parliament urged Egypt on Wednesday to make good on its threat to send troops to fight rival Turkey-backed western Libyan forces should they attack the strategic city of Sirte, Egypt's state news agency reported.

If Egypt needed an invitation, they just got it.

UPDATE: Could there be (another) Turkish-Egyptian war if Egypt intervenes? Egypt would have Arab support. And NATO is split. Besides, NATO will hardly help Turkey in a non-defensive war.

The Turks have better troops. But not as good as they were pre-purge. And the Turkish people don't want to lose troops in a war, so Turkey would rely on proxies for combat troops. Plus, can Turkey afford this on top of their other efforts in Syria and Iraq, plus Red Sea and Persian Gulf region ambitions? Egypt would have Saudi financial support.

Still, we can all be thankful America just knocked off the dictator back in 2011 and refrained from deploying troops there so the locals could sort out their differences without the awful effects of our presence. That was the lesson the left learned from Iraq, after all.

UPDATE: If Egypt wants a justification for intervening, they produced it:

Egypt on Saturday executed a Libyan militant convicted of plotting an attack that killed at least 16 police officers in 2017, the military said.

There you go.