Monday, March 30, 2020

The Wuhan Flu Affects America's Military Disproportionately

I'm relieved that America hasn't experienced the Wuhan Flu alone. If China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea weren't also under threat, God knows how they'd be tempted to take advantage.

Both our carriers in the western Pacific have Wuhan Flu cases:

Two sailors onboard the Nimitz class aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, which forward-deployed in Japan and presently pier-side there, have tested positive for the COVID-19 novel coronavirus. This comes just a day after the U.S. Navy announced it had quarantined the entire crew of another aircraft carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, on their ship in port in Guam after a number of sailors contracted the virus.

Pandemics affect combat operations:

Amid the escalating COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world are facing widespread disruptions to not only the health of their populations and economies, but their militaries. Even if the virus itself doesn't leave key personnel severely ill (or worse), quarantine measures can still severely thwart military operations. Meanwhile, military powers such as the United States may increasingly be forced to deploy additional forces to the frontlines of unfolding COVID-19 outbreaks at home. The resulting fallout could, in turn, result in setbacks in the fight against multiple non-state actors abroad, and potentially even the long-term development of military capabilities.

Operating in the midst of an epidemic has to be way worse than operating in a chemical warfare environment which slows fighting down a lot, because epidemics are everywhere, all the time.

Training for war is also more difficult:

Large-scale field exercises canceled. Recruiting stations shuttered. And most alarming: a steady rise in coronavirus infections aboard warships, in special operations units, among troops in Afghanistan and at boot camp.

The pandemic is bearing down on military readiness. And with predictions that the outbreak could last for months, concerns are growing inside the Pentagon and Congress that the virus could seriously erode the military's preparedness to fight.

For those who don't train as much as we do, this is a real bonus for them if they fight us. So this does hurt America and certain allies more than other countries' militaries.

Mind you, if we were at war, both carriers would fight. As would the rest of the military. As an institution it is built to operate while suffering losses. The carriers would fight less effectively, more slowly, and with more non-combat casualties even before you consider combat losses. But they would fight. As would the rest of our military, even as it takes steps to limit the damage from the epidemic.

Remember, things like lack of training, personnel, equipment, and ammunition don't stop wars. Those inadequacies just make them less decisive, longer, and more costly in lives and money.

From a national security angle, I am relieved our potential enemies face this epidemic problem, too (with all due sorrow for the civilians who suffer during this pandemic). If they didn't have to cope also, the temptation for their leaders to hit us while we are coping with an epidemic might be too great for some to resist for long.

And for some, it still might be.