Monday, December 30, 2019

Iran Oddly Keeps Trying to Win

This article argues that Iran is winning in Iraq and Lebanon, despite the popular protests against Iranian power in both countries.

The latter outcome is not shocking given how powerful Hezbollah is relative to the fragmented society and weak "central" government in Lebanon.

We should have a better hand to play in Iraq with Kurds, Sunni Arabs, and most Shia Arabs opposing Iran.

But are we even trying to oppose Iran in Iraq? The war is raging--at a low level militarily. Iran at least understands that to win you have to try to win. Although to be fair, "winning" in both countries in that first article is defined as coming out no worse as the result of the protests.

We have to keep working the problem in Iraq. The rise of ISIL gave Iran a big opening that they took to expand influence in Iraq.

I think Lebanon requires either the collapse of mullah rule in Iran or an extensive Israeli military action that tears up Hezbollah enough for the rest of the Lebanese to fill a resulting power vacuum. Although I was totally wrong that Israel would strike when Hezbollah's role in fighting for Assad wound down to prevent Hezbollah from resetting in Lebanon.

And why don't we make more of Iran's determination to win their wars no matter how many Arabs have to die for Iran to achieve that? I mean, they admit it in unguarded moments.

Iran wants to win. Do we?

UPDATE: No, "protesters" did not storm the American embassy in Iraq:

Several thousand protesters attacked the US embassy in the Iraqi capital on Tuesday in anger at US air strikes that killed more than two dozen pro-Iran fighters at the weekend.

I mentioned the air strikes in an update to this post.

This was an Iranian attack:

Dozens of angry Iraqi Shiite militia supporters broke into the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad on Tuesday after smashing a main door and setting fire to a reception area, prompting tear gas and sounds of gunfire.

Iran is waging war. Don't assume this is an "Iraqi" reaction. This was an attack by the people who already attacked us. People who work for Iran.

President Trump warned the Iraqis to carry out their responsibilities to protect our embassy:

President Donald Trump said Tuesday he expects Iraq to "use its forces" to protect the US embassy in Baghdad as he blamed Iran for orchestrating an "attack" that breached the wall of the compound.

We have friends in Iraq and Iraqis who would like us to defeat the Iranian attempt to turn Iraq into Lebanon. We need to rally them to support us.