Saturday, January 26, 2019

Pakistan is Its Own Circular Firing Squad

Sometimes what goes around comes around. Sadly, the rest of us may need to duck and cover.

A nuclear-armed state has been invading another country to gain territory it believes should not have been given to the target state when the original country fragmented. And the invading state denies it is invading despite the evidence that it is invading with proxies and sometimes direct military means.

So why aren't strategists elevating what Pakistan is doing to India to "hybrid war" mythological prowess?

This Pakistani aggression in Kashmir is pushing the two nations towards war, despite the possibility of both sides using nukes. This has brought more pressure on the Pakistani military to behave but so far the Pakistani generals are resisting the popular pressure inside Pakistan for less violence on the Indian border. The Pakistani generals see Kashmir as a victory for Pakistan, but one that that Pakistan cannot take proper credit for because supporting Islamic terrorism and sending those Islamic terrorists into India (and Afghanistan) is a violation of international law. While the Pakistani military denies culpability the evidence has piled up to the extent that most of the world is convinced that the Pakistani military is, indeed, violating international norms and supporting Islamic terrorism.

But you know what I think of that hybrid war hyper-ventilating nonsense.

As for Pakistan, the multiple problems caused by sponsoring jihadis the Pakistanis thought they could control are really starting to backfire on Pakistan (back to the Strategypage post):

One of the aftereffects of all that was the Taliban and a growing minority of Pakistanis who backed Islamic radicalism and the imposition of religious law, or even a religious government, on Pakistan. This created a civil war that is still under way. The Pakistani military thought they could control and manipulate the Islamic zealots. That proved more difficult than anticipated and while a four year military campaign (starting in 2014) against the local Islamic terrorists (the extremists among the Islamic conservatives the Saudis created) reduced the number of Pakistani Islamic terrorists seeking to replace the current government (a democracy dominated by the military) with a religious dictatorship, those zealots have become a permanent part of Pakistani society. This has caused problems with neighbors like Iran (Pakistani zealots kill Pakistani Shia), China (Pakistani zealots attack Chinese investments and the Chinese running them) and India (Pakistani zealots seek to terrorize India and seize control of Kashmir). These neighbors have become increasingly forceful in their demands that the Pakistani government do something about this. Pakistan placates the Iranians by refusing to provide military assistance to the Arabs in Yemen, or against any Iranian military operation directed at the Gulf Arabs. Now Pakistan has to deal with increasingly angry Arabs who threatened to halt the cash infusions that the Pakistani economy now depends on. The Chinese demand quick and effective action against Pakistan supported Islamic terrorists who threaten Chinese investments.

And America is tiring of putting up with our black sheep ally. Do read it all.

Perhaps the Pakistanis should look to Syria for what happens when "tame" jihadis truly get out of control. And that's apart from the problem of pissing off India.

Heck, maybe Russia should think about the problems that they could endure from promoting separatism in Georgia and Ukraine.