Monday, October 15, 2018

The Middle Threat

Nobody has any excuse not to act to defend the West:

The five nations in the world's leading intelligence-sharing network have been exchanging classified information on China's foreign activities with other like-minded countries since the start of the year, seven officials in four capitals said.

The increased cooperation by the Five Eyes alliance - grouping Australia, Britain, Canada, New Zealand and the United States - with countries such as Germany and Japan is a sign of a broadening international front against Chinese influence operations and investments.

I imagine China enjoys quietly gaining power while the aggressive Russians figuratively yell "Squirrel!" by threatening NATO to attract attention. But a quiet Western world response to China works despite the high-profile Putin Show.

And I just don't get this angst:

In a little-noticed pivot, the Administration set up China as the major geopolitical opponent of the United States in no uncertain terms, led by a speech from Vice President Mike Pence. This change in position — not to be confused with the far more benign “Pacific Pivot” of the Obama Administration — has set off alarm bells ringing from Tokyo to Melbourne.

Our allies are worried that America will stand up to Chinese pressure and aggression? I don't think so:

When asked if it would be better for the world to have the US or China as the leading global power, 73 per cent of Asian respondents – represented by polls taken in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Indonesia and Australia – favoured the United States, versus 12 per cent for China, the new research showed.

I think those who fear China could pick them off one by one see the advantage to having America provide a shield:

China has a growing problem with the Americans waging a trade war (because of decades of economic scams). China is at a disadvantage in this trade dispute because China exports nearly four times as much (in dollar value) to the U.S. than the Americans export to China. This trade dispute is escalating and that is bad for Chinese businesses in general because China has tended to treat all its trading partners badly. Now those countries see a chance to get back at China.

Indeed, if alarm bells are ringing in Tokyo, it is the sound for general quarters:

Warfare exercises in the disputed South China Sea over the past two months reveal a sustained, long-term escalation of Japanese activity in a region where Tokyo has strategic interests that include keeping Beijing in check.

In September a Japanese submarine, helicopter carrier and two destroyers explored the sea contested by six governments, with China the most militarily powerful. The exercise is part of a two-month initiative called Indo Southeast Asia Deployment 2018, designed to promote “interoperability with our partner navies,” the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force says on its website.

Then, on Monday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledged to work with Vietnam on security in the South China Sea. Two days earlier his forces had held a beach-storming drill with their counterparts in the Philippines.

Is the Trump focus on China less "benign" that Obama's pivot to the Pacific? Sure. But that's because the Obama pivot was really a pivot away from the Middle East. Between leaving Iraq in 2011 after winning the Iraq War and reentering Iraq in 2014 to wage Iraq War 2.0, the Obama administration needed a reason for trying to flee the Middle East.

Further, the claim that the original pivot (which was just the continuation of a post-Cold War trend, anyway) was some definition of "benign" ignores that China claimed to be outraged that we'd even need to pivot to the Pacific.

And as an aside, contra the angst-ridden author, that I find the assumption that the Chinese have an amazing long-range planning ability to be just silly.