Sunday, May 13, 2018

Weekend Data Dump

Unclear on the Concept--Iranian Nutball Edition: "'You (U.S.) should know that you cannot threaten this great nation because our people withstood eight year of ... defence (in the war with Iraq),' Rouhani said in a speech carried live on state television." America punched through the Iraqis occupying Kuwait in a little over a month of combat in 1991; and was in Baghdad in under a month in 2003. As Iranians well know. So sure, if we fight like Saddam's Iraqis, Iran has a chance.

Am I happy that President Trump has an unsavory personal life, is crude, and had little background to prepare him for the presidency? Of course not. He was literally the last Republican I wanted to win the 2016 primaries. And I hope the next Republican president reverses course on those traits. But remember that Democrats set the standard of separating personal life from policy with President Bill Clinton (and less publicly with President Kennedy). Democrats set the standard for lying with Clinton, too, although he was far more sophisticated at it, putting "parsing" into our vocabulary for figuring out "what the meaning of 'is' is." Democrats set the standard for crudity with President Johnson. Democrats set the standard for accepting a thin resume' with President Obama. I'm not happy my side managed to combine them all in this Gordie Howe hat trick, but you deal with who you have and not who you wish you had. (Related thoughts. And before Truman, there was Jackson.) I still haven't drank the Kool-Aid to be a Trump loyalist. But I resent intensely the snobbery involved in liberal views of those who, with good reason, voted for Trump. I remain grateful he defeated Hillary Clinton, whose corruption and ineptitude would have denied us the policies that the Trump administration has provided--whether because of or in spite of Trump, I don't care which--and may provide if things work out. And you have to admit, no dictatorship descended on America as a lot of otherwise intelligent people bizarrely believed would happen. I know, I know, any day now our press corps will be so in danger of arrest and disappearance that they won't gather in one ball room to cruelly ridicule the president for an evening of entertainment. We will endure and prosper. As we have before.

Whatever you need to say to yourself to sleep at night.

The carrier Truman began airstrikes on ISIL in Syria from the Mediterranean Sea. Which is interesting. Where do the planes fly? Through Turkish air space? Through Israeli and Jordanian air space? I assume not over western Syria. I assume Truman will do this for a while before moving on to the Arabian Sea. Like most of Sixth Fleet's assets, the carrier is in transit and only temporarily in that fleet, simulating an actual fleet.

Another survey confirming that young people everywhere are pretty ignorant, as a rule. America spent blood and treasure to liberate Iraqis from Saddam's brutal rule and followed up by helping Syrians and Iraqis throw off brutal ISIL rule. By contrast, Russia's efforts to "improve" relations with the Arab world consist of helping the butcher regime of Assad kill Syrian Arabs more effectively while bolstering Persian Iran, yet young Arabs get all googly eyed about Russia. Good luck with that.

It seems like we could restart F-22 production if we want to, according to a look at the issue. I don't think capping the production was a bad a decision (although we may have capped it too low to keep two full wings in operation as I felt was enough) as it is portrayed now given the global situation at the time. But bizarrely, we haven't even made sure all our F-22s can fight the air supremacy mission! How is that even possible? And I think the Air Force has problems that go way beyond one platform. But is it a good idea to restart production of a plane that was first produces in 1996? Unless we use the fuselage and gut it to install updated electronics, is this really the best way to pivot to air superiority missions in great power competition? Maybe it is. And maybe it isn't. But it is an option despite earlier claims that we couldn't even do it if we wanted to.

The idea put forth by Democrats that pulling out of the Iran deal just angers our European allies is pretty damning of our European allies when you consider the the Europeans should be angry with Iran's nuclear missile ambitions as well as Iran's support for terrorism and chaos in the region--not with our efforts to actually stop Iran rather than pretend we are stopping Iran.

So I needed some cleaning supply. I checked where I keep it but had none. So I bought another bottle. When I brought it home, I thought I should actually put it where I usually need it rather than upstairs. When I opened the cupboard to put the bottle in the new location, I found a full bottle of the cleaning supply I thought I had run out of.

In twelve years, the death toll of Mexico's Cartel Wars has exceeded 207,000 dead. I recall in the early 1980s (I think) that Mexico dismissed American calls to help stop the growing Mexican drug exports to America. Mexicans said it was a demand problem in America, and besides, why would Mexico want to halt the money heading to Mexico? Now it is much more of a Mexican problem.

If we are lucky, North Korea is willing to do something radical because they realize their system--and the privileged status of the small elite class in the system--is doomed without major change (and Chinese and Western help to manage that change).

American and coalition forces are backing new SDF offensive action against ISIL in Syria.

Well, an anti-corruption "color revolution" put in place a new government in Armenia. We'll see if they can actually reduce corruption. No doubt Russia is seething, seeing America's hand in this. But Armenia needs help to hold off Turkey and Azerbaijan, so I imagine the Russians will get to keep their bases.

You must admit that Wednesday's news of released Americans from North Korean custody as well as news that a meeting on de-nuclearization would take place quickly disarmed the budding Iran nuclear deal proponent argument that getting out of that deal on Tuesday would harm chances of a North Korea deal.

If firing a salvo of missiles at Saudi Arabia was one of the ways Iran has struck back (indirectly) for America's renunciation of our participation in the farcical Iran nuclear deal, I have news--firing missiles is what has been going on all along with the deal in place.

Honestly, I'm somewhat shocked that Trump pulled out of the Iran deal. Usually, it is easier to accept even a bad status quo because any new bad thing that happens can be blamed on the attempt to reverse the bad status quo. And what's the saying? “You can get used to hanging, if you hang long enough.” So kudos to Trump for taking the step despite all the pressure to maintain the status quo.

Well that's good to know.

So how detailed is the agreement between China, Japan, and South Korea on the North Korea nuclear issue?

I will say that President Obama did a good thing by getting out of the way of private sector space industry rather than trying to regulate it to death. The Russians are feeling the pain of this decision on top of the benefits it is providing America. Of course, China is making great strides in space now.

The French are upset with America for dumping the awful Iran nuclear deal, saying Europeans aren't "vassals" of America. The French want to continue to "collaborate" with Iran. Ah nuance!  Normally Europeans have to be conquered by aggressive dictators with a desire to wipe out Jews before working with such vile dictators.

The Kremlin says it has no plans to amend term limits to allow Putin to run for president again in 2024. Remember, Putin didn't bother to amend term limits to allow Putin to be prime minister forever. So before 2024, Putin just has to transfer the powers of state to whatever office he happens to hold.

Why the Russians wasted money duplicating Democratic party strategy is beyond me. The Russians really wanted to disrupt America. Which makes sense when you remember that Russia's GDP is about 7.6% of America's. The Russians can only compete with America if we are too divided to project our power. Of course, picking on weak targets the Russians are close to while America is far from them is the other part. And lots of nukes. And maybe the aqueduct?

There is no way something like that could be weaponized, eh?

I had vowed to refrain from putting as much stuff out of my usual lane in the data dump as I had been doing. But last week's data dump did not reflect that resolve at all. So I deleted 12 items in this weekend's data dump (do you know how hard it was to get rid of my precious words?). I really have no obligation to note something that annoys me, or horrifies me, is kind of interesting, or whatever. I can have an opinion on virtually anything, of course, even if it is a low priority issue or even if it really annoys me. And I don't need to post on double-standards of the media and the left as if nobody else does that. Let's see if I can maintain this healthier attitude.

The sad tale of the Russian stealth fighter program. What will India do to get back on the path to having stealth?

They fly close, we go look, they look back, everybody records everything, and everybody flies home. And all in international airspace, so not a particularly big deal.

I strongly suspect that if a summit between Trump and Kim is set for June 12th that a nuclear deal is already largely set in place, with America, our allies, North Korea, and China on board. Traditionally, summits aren't the place to negotiate. They are the place to publicly sign the already-agreed deal. In that light, America withdrawing from the Iran deal can't possibly, as some deal proponents argue (wrongly even if no deal is prepared, I believe), undermine a potential North Korean deal--the deal exists, and rejecting the Iran deal now clearly warns North Korea that they need to abide by their deal to keep it.

This oil production commitment by Saudi Arabia is certainly helpful in dealing with Iran.

Palestinians continue their border assault on Israel, this time destroying infrastructure used to import goods and supplies into Gaza. No doubt this problem will be described as part of the mythical Israeli "blockade" of Gaza.

The US military will continue to work with Lebanon's military despite the dominance of the sub-state power Hezbollah after the recent Lebanese election. To me, continuing this relationship only makes sense if Israel tears up Hezbollah in a major ground campaign raid that allows the Lebanese military to reimpose Lebanese national authority in the south once Hezbollah power is broken.

The Army is looking at a 6.8mm round to replace the 5.56mm round, giving it more penetrating power against body armor and better accuracy at longer ranges.

Whether it is Kerry or those further down the food chain, Obama officials morphed from post-America to anti-America so slowly I hardly noticed: "Two former Obama administration officials suggested that America’s European allies should punish President Donald Trump for withdrawing from the Iran deal and levying additional sanctions on the Islamic republic." Funny how these former officials are more upset with America for opposing a nuke-pursuing, murderous, nutball regime than with Iran which is a nuke-pursuing, murderous, nutball regime. Tip to Instapundit.

Multiple church bombings in Indonesia. And stabbings in France. Explain to me again how jihadis learned to hate America because we liberated Iraq.