Saturday, April 14, 2018

Weekend Data Dump

As we race into a new online world where privacy is abandoned in search engines, purchases, movement, Facebook, and all the other social media that scoops up and analyzes the data of our lives in ways we can't even imagine, you might want to read The Light of Other Days, which I've mentioned before, that explores a world of no privacy and how people react to it.

As time goes on, my inclination to support the Republican party only grows. Initially Republican based on defense issues, I could always see the appeal of Democrats because of their once hard defense of civil liberties and freedom of speech plus a commitment to working people. And Democrats had once been strong on defense. So I could see the basis of being a Democrat. But Democrats have gotten worse on defense (except for their sudden conversion to being anti-Russian, which won't last) and have abandoned their former commitments to civil liberties, freedom of speech, and the working class. Really, I am strong on defense because I want to protect our freedoms. Defense is the basis for defending freedoms and I figured the Democrats did more damage to defense than Republicans did to freedom at home. That trade off is no longer necessary. Democrats are worse on pretty much all issues. The Republicans aren't the party I'd design to reflect my personal views. But you go to politics with the parties you have and not the parties you wish you had.

I keep waiting for liberals committed to the resistance to realize that America didn't elect Hitler or Robert E. Lee to the White House. Yes he is a personally repelling figure. But what he does is well within the parameters of America's political spectrum. Will liberals ever be embarrassed by their unjustified hysteria? Don't they realize that droning on about the Trump presidency being figuratively born in Russia and so invalid is as silly as believing Obama was literally born in Kenya and thus illegitimately elected?

I keep wondering why the media keeps focusing on what Bill Clinton and Loretta Lynch talked about in their infamous tarmac conversation. They say they chatted about grandchildren. Which is probably true. But why doesn't anybody ask if they exchanged information in written or electronic form rather than just focusing on the talk?

As long as India has a dysfunctional procurement bureaucracy that is more effective than enemies in reducing the strength of their fleet, no, India will not become a naval superpower.

I don't follow events in Spain closely. The Catalan issue sputters along. I confess I worried that what I thought were heavy-handed Spanish actions against separatists would strengthen separatist popularity. I was wrong, it seems.

As China plans belts and roads across Asia to Europe, India is thinking a little smaller with road, rail, and water links to Nepal--now controlled by communist parties (who knew they were around outside of American college faculty lounges?)--to keep that critical border state friendly to India rather than tilting to China.

I don't know why this article highlights Iranian computers being hit by a cyber-attack when only 2% of the affected computers are in Iran. Also, I doubt the attack was from Americans concerned about interference in our elections despite the American flag that appeared on screens given that the targets were mostly in America, Europe, and India, with China also hit. The attack is a mystery. The headline is a bigger mystery.

It is true that Trump's decision to stop the "caravan" of refugees took place in an environment of much reduced border crossings and the fact that the caravan is an annual public relations event. But it is not true that the decision was an overreaction to a non-crisis. Consider that the great reduction in border crossings is purely a public relations result of fear of Trump tightening border security. There aren't more border patrol people. There is no "wall." The drop is pure public relations that made a "virtual" wall. If the caravan had made it to the border with plenty of video of people crossing the border and making it--even if arrested to be released for a hearing later--the virtual wall would vanish and the deterrent value of that virtual wall would be gone. Sending the National Guard to the border temporarily helps maintain the deterrence of the virtual wall until better border controls can be put in place. That's my view, anyway.

India's own defense bureaucracy has been the biggest threat to India's military for a long time, but that is changing as China's capabilities continue to rise. India is still trying to figure out what plane to buy to reverse the slow erosion of their air strength. Seven years ago, I said this would be the biggest Indian defense decision this decade. Given the dysfunctional Indian procurement system, this will likely be the biggest defense decision India will need to make in the next decade. China smiles. Heck, even Pakistan can work up a grin. Indian pilots on the other hand will still try to get into the air and back down again in one piece in aging Soviet platforms that weren't very safe in their prime.

Sergei Skripal is reported to be recovering rapidly now. Which is contrary to earlier reports I read that he (and his daughter) could be permanently crippled from the Russian poison gas assassination attempt in Britain.

Naturally, Turkey's post-July 2016 coup state of emergency has been extended. At what point does an extended state of emergency just become an autocracy?

Iraq says they will not let the border stop them from striking ISIL forces in Syria. It helps that America dominates the Syrian side of the Iraq-Syria border.

Eventually, sanctions weaken. Sure, sanctions will increase the price and time it takes to get something banned, but eventually you find people you can pay to get and deliver the banned something. This story weakens the argument from Obama loyalists that sanctions pushed Iran to agree to the nuclear deal. Which makes it harder to sustain the argument that the deal is a good thing for America.

Where drug smuggling sustains the jihadis. They do what they need to do to survive.

From the toilet to your hands. Apparently this green initiative is a bacteria collector and dispenser. Tip to Instapundit.

The federal government spends too much money. And will for the foreseeable future. It was nice to get a tax cut and our military needs to be ready to fight. Both are legitimate objectives. But at some point the budget deficit has to be brought under control by actually making choices about what we spend money on. I know Republicans have been saying this for decades (well, while Democrats are in charge) and a reckoning hasn't arrived. But I shudder to imagine what will happen when interest rates rise and the debt has to be repaid at rates higher than near-zero. And if when we have a recession? Good God. Tip to Instapundit.

And remember, the new "stealthy" Super Hornet isn't a fully stealthed aircraft. But it may have enough stealth to shoot first before an enemy plane detects it and shoots. Which would be nice.

This is a reasonable assessment of Russia's military. It covers a lot of aspects I've gone over. Basically Russia can nuke anybody; and has the edge over small neighbors in conventional warfare and has an edge in mechanized warfare over NATO in the initial stages of any war by using their fraction of a military ready to fight before NATO can mobilize. As for China versus Russia, yes China has the edge on the ground in the east. But I think China's navy could smash up Russia's Pacific Fleet and I think China's air force newly focused on pilot training would defeat Russia's air force in the Far East. I'd also add that Russia has good special forces.

The idea that America could lose our seat at the negotiating table on the Israel-Palestinian issue because we will move our embassy to Jerusalem is ridiculous. Like Israel would enter into an international forum without America at their side but with Russia, China, and Europeans on the Palestinian side. But if the Palestinians want to negotiate directly with the Israelis, be my guest.

The media never thought President Obama's campaign finance violations were a big deal (or Bill Clinton's). But now such a thing is a threat to the republic. And no word on Hillary Clinton's tenure as Secretary of Clinton Fund Solicitations State. Funny how that works.

Sometimes researchers are just stupid. But remember, if you doubt their pronouncements, you are a "science denier." Tip to Instapundit.

And speaking of fake crises that hurt people by making them fear rare problems to the point of paralysis.

Why breaking up America is even being brought up when the original federalism of states running their own business below the level of truly national issues is what worked for so long before we directly elected United States senators is beyond me. Honestly, I don't care if California wants to require all cars to operate on renewable Unicorn dung any more or less than I don't care if Texas mandates every adult to own an AR-15 and 100 rounds of ammo. Why do we have to be up in everybody else's business across our large country? Take that power away from Washington, D.C.,  and America is no less divided but we don't fight hammer and tongs over who controls the federal government.

Los Angeles is painting their streets white to combat global warming. It is expensive and will take 20 years. If this is such a crisis, why isn't LA doing this now and damn the cost--for the planet, of course. Critics wonder if the carbon cost of making and spreading the paint does more harm than good. I ask where does the sun's energy go if it isn't absorbed into dark pavement? Unless it bounces back to the sun, doesn't it just reflect into something else nearby that absorbs it? I confess I may be unclear about this, but my understanding is that energy in the normal world can't be destroyed, just changed. I will laugh very hard if the energy is reflected into buildings next to the street which react by triggering air conditioning more often--something a hot street doesn't do.

Oh good Lord. That's a very bad accident. 

The Iranians warned Trump not to kill the nuclear deal, vowing to ramp up their nuclear program if he does. I'm confused, if Iran does not have a nuclear weapons program--which Iran denies ever having--why would ramping up a program for clean nuclear energy be a threat?

The F-35 could be used to shoot down ballistic missiles in the boost phase. That ability isn't new although the stealth features to allow the F-35 to loiter unseen for a bit (refueling planes are not stealthy) within an enemy air space is new. A new F-35-fired missile to chase a ballistic missile into space would be new. We didn't use that ability when I described it. And we simply pretended the Iran deal solved the problem. But the capability to hit ballistic missiles on launch is there.

The Army has a new precision round that can operate in a GPS-denied environment. It doesn't appear to be guided by having a device with line of sight on the target guiding it (like laser designators) and it doesn't appear to be an inertial guidance system (or at least not a fully inertial system). Oddly it seems like it relies on other signals on the battlefield. But I'm not clear. But if it works, that's fine.

Hiftar suffered a stroke and is in Jordan for treatment, it seems. He controls the "Libya National Army" which is the most capable military force in Libya. Libya is in bad enough shape without losing that best avenue to unify the country and fight jihadis.

When imperial conquest is okey dokey! Just watch out for the "little grey men" in your neighborhood.

I remain amused that so many people are placing so much hope on the raid on Trump's attorney for finding something that leads to impeachment. Oh no. President Pence. Honestly, for people like me who don't like Trump personally but are forever grateful that he kept Hillary Clinton out of the White House, that might be the best-case scenario! Actually, I think it would have a very bad effect on a large part of the country that might well be justified in believing their votes were nullified by single-minded people with power who simply don't like the idea that "deplorable" people might win an election.

Anti-semitism is being "revived" in Europe and America? So old Nazis are doing better at recruiting? Or is it more accurate to say--certainly for Western Europe if not Eastern Europe that does seem to be reviving old anti-semitism--that anti-semitism is being "imported?"

This all just seems like an effort to make people bend to the demand of believing 2+2=5.

Well that's inconvenient.

What really shocks me is that we had 32 employees in the Cambodian embassy to fire.

Communism sucks. Don't be a science denier. It amazes me that this is even in doubt. And remember, socialism is just the economic portion of communism. Tip to Instapundit.

Well, I expect to wake up here on planet Earth on April 24th regardless of the truth about Planet X. Tip to Instapundit.

If Republicans lose control of either house of Congress this fall, it is from sheer stupidity. How is it that Republicans didn't use the rare alignment of control of Congress, the presidency, and the courts to implement priority legislation the way Democrats do when they have even a fraction of that? Why do Republicans assume this circumstance will last as long as it takes them to get around to implementing their laws? Amazing.

I just finished The Great Halifax Explosion which described the explosion of an ammunition transport in Canada during World War I. A couple thousand people, at least, died. I've wondered if a hostile power could smuggle a nuke into a harbor to detonate it in the merchant ship. Perhaps I over-estimate what might be needed given that the explosion in Halifax generated destructive power of a fifth to a third of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki nuclear bombs.

It's nice that the French are outraged over Assad's use of chemical weapons notwithstanding the 2013 chemical weapons deal. It would be nicer if the French didn't believe that the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran is so much better.

Why would America need 6 icebreakers when all the people smarter than me (I know that, because that's what they constantly claim) say that the Arctic sea ice is disappearing because of global warming?

American logistics have a long path from the United States. So it is nice to shorten the lines of supply for as many supplies as possible with Security of Supply Arrangements, like the one with Norway just signed.

US, British, and French forces struck Assad's chemical weapons research and production capacity last night. Trump was fully empowered by the Constitution to strike. I have been consistent on this, refusing to say any Obama action had to have prior Congressional approval. Mind you, I pointed out that Democrats were fine with Obama's actions without prior approvals when they were not for Bush 43 and when they have been stridently against it for Trump. There are many ways to legally fight and prior Congressional approval is just one method.

Comey announcing an investigation of Clinton because she was ahead in the polls and he wanted to bolster her legitimacy after her win is not in any way consistent with rule of law.

I'm confused, isn't this behavior exactly what actual white racists want people of color to do?

Strategypage discusses the post-Communist revival of Cossack military formations and their new position in the personally loyal (as opposed to being loyal to Russia) Russian National Guard that Putin established.

This is the main reason I wasn't worried about a Trump administration once he won despite the early panic about how Trump might wreck our foreign policy. Seriously, who did you think he'd appoint, ultimately? This is probably the point that Democrats end their highly unusual anti-Russian posture.

You know, I'm really, really sorry that a morally and ethically pure leader from a country more worthy of admiration (like Russia, China, or Iran) didn't take action to punish Assad for gassing his own people.

Huh. I was assured that low growth is the new normal beyond the ability of business climate to change it.