Wednesday, October 18, 2017

The Rump Axis of Evil

If we are to have any hope of being able to contain North Korea after they get nuclear weapons, denying North Korea a chance to profit by selling nukes to Iran is necessary.

Is this new strategy on Iran our real anti-North Korea strategy?

But if we fail to defeat Iran in Syria and Iraq, is it an effective strategy?

It would be best to deny Iran and North Korea nuclear weapons. But it is possible that war with North Korea is too dangerous now (thanks Obama!).

We might have missed that whole "imminent" window when liberals said preemptive military action is justified to deny a state WMD. I always said that standard relied on intelligence precision we could never reach. So here we are.

So we may have to deter North Korea while doing all we can to contain and roll back Iranian aggression until there is a revolution there that ends the mullah regime.

And is this strategy a response to Saudi Arabia's hedging by looking to Russia for possible help in containing Iran?

[Saudi Arabian King] Salman’s visit to Moscow could kick-start Russian mediation efforts to reconcile Yemeni differences, potentially in a way that benefits Saudi Arabia over Iran — the Saudis’ bitter enemy and rival proxy in Yemen’s civil war.

Remember that the Saudis were initially overjoyed that Trump seemed ready to reject Obama's Middle East policy of resetting relations with mullah-run Iran. But the long delay in actually changing our policy started to worry them that nothing would change.

Although in theory, in addition to being a warning shot across the bow to America, a Saudi outreach to Russia could benefit America if it pries Russia apart from Iran. But given common (enough) goals in Syria, is that likely?

Is the new Iran strategy in part designed to keep Saudi Arabia withing the fold? Is it enough?