Friday, August 04, 2017

Time is Also an Enemy

The Iraqis believe that the ISIL defenders in Tal Afar are primed to be defeated. That may very well be true, but it may also be a temporary effect of the Mosul defeat.

Let's hope so after the beating ISIL took trying to hold Mosul:

A senior Iraqi general predicted a relatively easy victory for his forces in the upcoming battle for the Islamic State haven of Tal Afar as up 2,000 fighters and their families there are "worn out and demoralised".

Less than one month after declaring victory in the city of Mosul, Iraqi forces are poised to attack Tal Afar, which is around 40 km to the west of Mosul, in what will be the next major battle against the militants.

"I don't expect it will be a fierce battle even though the enemy is surrounded," Major-General Najm al-Jabouri told Reuters in an interview.

It would help if the Iraqis turned on Tal Afar more quickly. Morale recovers.

I strongly believe that ISIL morale in Iraq was shaky after a number of defeats in Anbar, but that the time it took the Iraqis to turn on Mosul (fall 2016) gave ISIL the chance to restore their morale.