Wednesday, May 03, 2017

Joint Wishful Thinking?

India might want to reconsider this assumption as the basis for their defense planning:

Today’s stand-off precision munitions with satellite control systems have altered the physical component of conflict. The character of future wars is likely to be ambiguous, uncertain, short, swift, lethal, intense, precise, non-linear, unrestricted, unpredictable and hybrid. [emphasis added]

So what wars this century have given India this impression that wars are now inherently short?

And as long as they bring up the hybrid issue, how's that short and intense war in the Donbas going after more than 3 years?

But hey, everyone things their war will be short. I suppose America came close with Iraq and Afghanistan where we defeated the enemy government in short campaigns.

But new types of fighting extended both wars to today, though they have evolved into different struggles.

Mostly I think that assuming short wars relieves you of the need to think about how to replace losses, expend ammunition at the rate you think necessary for a long time, or raise new troops. And the cost of all that, naturally, doesn't come up.

Face it, when you have new nifty stuff, that runs out eventually and then you have to fight with cheaper stuff that can be made in the numbers needed. And until you do that, you slow the pace of warfare to stretch out what you have.

But hey, good luck with that assumption.