Thursday, July 23, 2015

The Failure is Baked into the Deal

The Iran deal is supposed to prevent Iran from going nuclear over the next decade and bring Iran into the community of nations so that presumably in ten years they won't even want nukes to threaten others.

So naturally we have decided to arm Iran's Gulf Arab neighbors (even more) to the teeth because Iran probably isn't going to reform and in order to persuade these Arab states not to go nuclear in response:

“The U.S. is specifically looking at ways to expedite arms transfers to Arab states in the Persian Gulf and is accelerating plans for them to develop an integrated regional ballistic missile defense capability,” the Journal’s Carol Lee and Gordon Lubold reported Monday. The goal, they add, is to prevent the Saudis “from trying to match Tehran’s nuclear capabilities.”

As for the likelihood that the West will punish Iran for any violations?

In practice, the threat of the latter [Iran leaving the deal over a dispute over terms] will inevitably prevent the application of the former [reimposing sanctions over violations]. Iranian violations of the deal, especially if they are technical and incremental, will be tolerated for the sake of preserving the deal. Violations will be treated as differences of interpretation as to what the deal requires, or as arcane disputes over technical issues, or as responses to some Western provocation. Pretexts will be contrived to revise the deal to suit new and more expansive Iranian demands. Editorialists will enjoin “all parties” to reason and restraint.

Yes, that is predictable. Especially with Russia, China, and even France running interference for Iran. It will be the Saddam-era "oil for food" debacle enabled by he same suspects.

Yet this deal will still result in Nobel Peace Prizes being passed out like "Participation" ribbons at a pre-school soccer summer program.