Tuesday, November 27, 2012

So Shall It Be Written?

President Morsi's attempt to insulate his decisions from even the judiciary that Egypt has is sparking protests in a replay of the original Arab Spring protests that brought down Mubarak. But will the security forces be as reluctant to fight protesters in defense of Morsi as they were for Mubarak? And will the generals be as reluctant to test their troops in such a conflict?

It is certainly a bit of comfort that many Egyptians aren't taking the attempt by Morsi to become a new pharaoh lightly:

More than 100,000 people flocked to Cairo's central Tahrir square on Tuesday, chanting against Egypt's Islamist president in a powerful show of strength by the opposition demanding Mohammed Morsi revoke edicts granting himself near autocratic powers.

Waving Egypt's red, white and black flags, crowds of protesters marched across Cairo to stream into the iconic plaza, as opposition to the decrees issued last week turned into a broader expression of anger against the rule of Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood.

Remember that the last time, the army would not shoot at protesters or clear them from the square. The brass worried the lower ranks had more sympathy for the protesters than loyalty to the autocrats.

But will the lower ranks feel more loyalty to an Islamist government and less sympathy for the protesters now?

It is in our interest to restrain the security forces. If our military-to-military relations mean anything, this is the time to use them. Then we need to pressure Morsi to respect rule of law. He's the president now, let's see if we can make sure the next election is clean and Morsi isn't just a president-for-life with sham elections ratifying his rule.

We may end up wanting the return of Classic Egypt. But the formula isn't in our control, anyway.

Best of luck to the protesters.