Monday, January 31, 2011

Safety Net

The Egyptian army won't shoot as long as the protesters stay within limits:

The army statement, aired on state TV, said the powerful military recognizes "the legitimacy of the people's demands" — the strongest sign yet that it is willing to let the protests continue and even grow as long as they remain peaceful, even if that leads to the fall of Mubarak.

The Egyptian army may say they side with the people and support their legitimate grievances against the government, but they are still holding the line against the people pusuing tactics too violent or expanding protests to threaten locations that they defend:

For days, army tanks and troops have surrounded Tahrir Square, keeping the protests confined but doing nothing to stop people from joining.

Military spokesman Ismail Etman said the military "has not and will not use force against the public" and underlined that "the freedom of peaceful expression is guaranteed for everyone."

He added the caveats, however, that protesters should not commit "any act that destabilizes security of the country" or damage property.

Despite the appearance of the army siding with the people, there are limits to what the army will do to support the people. And ultimately, with those limits set forth, the army--as long as it holds together--defends the regime even if it doesn't defend the status quo ante.

But with the public statements of siding with the people and limits on what the army will be called to do, the military increases the odds that the army will hold together and follow orders. Again, this defends the regime in some form.