Friday, September 24, 2010

As Long as You've Axed

China's offer to move missiles away from Taiwan is a false concession, as I've explained before. Even destroying some missiles may mean nothing if the missiles destroyed are either obsolete or are excess to what China needs to support an invasion of Taiwan. China's offer to "axe" missiles must include destroying missiles and also destroying enough to make sure those remaining can't support an invasion of Taiwan.

China is at it again on this issue:

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has suggested that mainland missiles pointing at Taiwan could one day be removed, Taipei-based media reported Friday.

"I believe the issue you mention will eventually be realised," Wen said according to the United Daily News and other newspapers, when asked about withdrawing Chinese missiles targeting Taiwan. ...

Taiwanese experts estimate that the Chinese military has more than 1,600 missiles aimed at the island.

But recent reports in the island's media have said the People's Liberation Army may boost the number of short-range ballistic and cruise missiles facing Taiwan to 1,960 before the year's end.

So China may even just be upgrading their missiles and trying to gain propaganda points by offering the "concession" of moving or destroying older missiles that would be moved or retired anyway.

Taiwan needs to understand what the missiles would be used for in war and figure out how many China needs to defeat Taiwan; and then insist that the Chinese destroy enough missiles to make it impossible to carry out those missions. Otherwise, the Taiwanese are just pretending to make themselves safer by falling for China's ploy.