Monday, May 03, 2010

Preparing for Sanctions

Iran may claim they don't fear sanctions over their nuclear program, but their bravado on this probably matches their chest thumping over their purported military might.

Iran is getting ready to endure sanctions by freeing up subsidies to get a slush fund:

The Islamic Republic spends between $90 billion to $100 billion per year on subsidies. Of that, $35 billion to $45 billion goes to fuel subsidies, which include gasoline, heating oil, kerosene, liquefied petroleum gas or LPG, and fuel oil, according to interviews with government officials.

Parliamentarians already approved a subsidy cut of $20 billion in January. Under the deal, a new government entity will be given the $20 billion to disperse as they see fit – outside the purview of the national budget, and thus with little to no parliamentary oversight.

But Ahmadinejad has been battling MPs for more comprehensive legislation to cut subsidies by double that amount. The aim is to ensure that his administration will have enough cash on hand to raise payments to his predominantly low-income constituency in the case that utility and fuel prices rise more than government projections, according to domestic analysts.

This will get rid of a benefit that helps both friends and foes with subsidies consumer goods and fuel. It will be replaced with a fund that can be spent on regime supporters and denied to regime opponents. Plus a little extra can be given to the regime supporters who can be counted on to inflict violence on regime opponents.

All that will buy time for the regime to crack down on unrest, seek ways around the sanctions, and work to nullify sanctions with diplomacy and propaganda of starving infants suffering under evil American sanctions.

And time to get nuclear weapons which will change the calculations of sanctions and sanction evaders.