Monday, April 19, 2010

Still On Course

We are on track to get 45,000 troops out of Iraq by September1, to reach our 50,000 level goal.

But there are worries as some look at security:

A wave of deadly bombings in and around Baghdad following Iraq's disputed March 7 parliamentary elections raised doubts about whether Iraqi security forces were prepared to protect the country as American forces began to leave.

But Odierno described al-Qaida in Iraq as an enemy on the run. The number of attacks and casualties to civilians and military personnel dropped in the first three months of 2010, he said.

"Iraqi security forces are now in the lead at going after al-Qaida," he said.

Neighboring Iran continues to play a destabilizing role, providing lethal and aid and training for insurgent elements, Odierno said. Asked if he'd like the authority to go into Iran and take out the training camps, he said he doesn't think it is necessary to conduct such operations.

The enemy is certainly vicious and determined to kill, with houses being rigged as bombs to kill neighbors rather than trying to penetrate Iraqi security to after government targets:

Al-Qaeda in Iraq is rigging houses and shops with explosives in a new tactic that has killed and maimed civilians in recent weeks and defied the thousands of security forces in Baghdad, officials say.

The renting of residential buildings for targeted bombings has forced police and the army to adapt their operations, in a bid to prevent more of the attacks that have killed dozens since the country's inconclusive March 7 election.

The US military has even coined a new acronym -- HBIED (house-borne improvised explosive device) for the bombings, which have also left hundreds wounded in the past month in the Iraqi capital.

We've seen these before in Iraq during the surge, hoping to kill our troops clearing buildings. We even saw the enemy build a girl's school from the ground up as giant HBIED killing ground.

The enemy is forcing the government to adapt, it is true; but that is because government forces have forced the enemy to adapt to better security against suicide bombers who need to travel to the target.

But remember that despite the horrific nature of recent attacks, the enemy's capacity to kill has been reduced. The basic statistics of civilian casualties show that despite the "wave of bombings."

I know that many in the anti-war side would be relieved to see our position in Iraq blow up in our faces. But this isn't it. Yes, the enemy can continue to kill innocents, but we continue to win despite the deaths. The enemy can't win on this course.

UPDATE: The enemy is running out of space inside Iraq:

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki announced the killings of Abu Omar al-Baghdadi and Abu Ayyub al-Masri at a news conference and showed photographs of their bloody corpses. U.S. military officials later confirmed the deaths, which Vice President Joe Biden called a "potentially devastating blow" to al-Qaida in Iraq.

Their bench isn't so deep these days. This will hurt, it seems.