Wednesday, April 21, 2010

At the Risk of Repeating Myself

This sentiment expressed by Admiral Mullen is accurate as far as it goes, but is completely misleading:

Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen and others have not budged from their view that a U.S. or Israeli military strike on Iran's known nuclear development facilities would not prevent Tehran from eventually building a bomb.

Instead, they warn, an attack on Iran's suspected weapons sites could cause a far-reaching and unpredictable backlash.

Let me repeat what I've long held: ineffective force is counter-productive. If the basis for the statement that bombing Iran's nuclear facilities will not stop Iran from going nuclear, it misses the point that a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities cannot be our entire strategy.

You would never claim that bombarding an enemy line could win the battle. You follow up with an attack that defeats the enemy and exploits that battle victory to win the war. Likewise, a strike on Iran's nuke facilities is just one part of the war--it is not a drive-by shooting.

A strike on Iran's nuclear facilities needs to be accompanied by an aerial campaign designed to blunt Iran's conventional military and terrorist capabilities, including command and control, in order to contain that backlash.

We'd need to perhaps blockade Iran  after starting the aerial campaign to enhance the pain of the strikes and push Iran's regime over. As long as we are going to war, enforce ablockade to negotiate a ceasefire that compels Iran to muzzle any terrorist response.

Or we'd need a plan to overthrow the government outright.

The point is, the strike on nuclear facilities should not be seen as a silver bullet that solves all Iran-related problems. We'd need to do more. More at the time and more in the months and years to follow.

And if we don't stop Iran's nuclear drive by military means, we've at least bought time to figure out how to stop them. Or maybe the horse will sing. Isn't that a better option than trying to figure out how to contain Iran after they've gotten nukes?

Even if Iran never uses nukes, how much more terror will they support with the shield of atomic weapons? We can't deter the mullahs now, so how will be deter a more powerful Iran?

Remember, only ineffective half-hearted military force is counter-productive.