Thursday, December 03, 2009

The Quiet Campaign

The surge in Afghanistan needs Pakistan to control its side of the border. It was the part of the war effort that President Obama glossed over in his West Point speech. But it is crucial:

Mr. Obama could not be very specific about his Pakistan strategy, his advisers conceded on Monday evening. American operations there are classified, most run by the Central Intelligence Agency. Any overt American presence would only fuel anti-Americanism in a country that reacts sharply to every missile strike against extremists that kills civilians as well, and that fears the United States is plotting to run its government and seize its nuclear weapons.

Yet quietly, Mr. Obama has authorized an expansion of the war in Pakistan as well — if only he can get a weak, divided, suspicious Pakistani government to agree to the terms.

In recent months, in addition to providing White House officials with classified assessments about Afghanistan, the C.I.A. delivered a plan for widening the campaign of strikes against militants by drone aircraft in Pakistan, sending additional spies there and securing a White House commitment to bulk up the C.I.A.’s budget for operations inside the country.

If Pakistan won't help us fully, it will harm our efforts, but the Predator strikes may just be the most visible part of an alternate strategy to disrupt the Taliban in Pakistan's frontier areas to prevent them from at least being a decisive factor in the Afghan fight. Certainly, the president famously said he'd "invade" Pakistan to win the war. I never believed he meant an actual "invasion" but it shows he is open to "operating in" Pakistan, regardless of Pakistan's overt cooperation.

We need to do something inside Pakistan with our without Pakistan's full cooperation. Without preventing Pakistan from being an enemy base, my concerns about putting too many troops into a landlocked place vulnerable to being cut off from supplies and forced to fight for years on end at a disadvantage because of a Pakistan enemy sanctuary will surely keep many an officer in the Pentagon sleepless nights.

But Pakistan domestic policy will always mean this can't be advertised. So by all means, keep it quiet.