Thursday, December 24, 2009

Cutting the Gordian Knot in the New Year?

The options of striking Iran's nuclear facilities, giving Israel the green light to do so, signing an agreement to halt Iran's nuclear work--which Iran will never honor, or learning to live with Iran's nukes are all horrible in one way or another.

The only way out of our dilemma seems to be regime change:

What should now be clear, even to the letter-writers of the Obama administration, is that the only way to solve the problem is to change the regime. Obama missed a unique opportunity to undermine the regime after the elections this summer, when it was as fragile as it has been since the 1979 revolution. It may well be too late, but there are still things the leader of the free world should do.

I don't think it is too late to help the protesters. I'll even entertain the possibility that we did the right thing since the protests--contrary to what I expected (although the Iranians haven't used an iron fist as I'd thought)--seem to have expanded beyond the Twittering class in Iran. But this positive assessment of our "do nothing and say nothing" policy relies on the eventual good outcome in Iran with the protesters destroying the regime.

Do not forget, destroying the Iranian mullah regime opens up new opportunities on a host of problems that Iran has an active hand in making worse.

UPDATE: Let me clarify my potential defense of the Obama administration. I may not see what the administration is doing. We may be doing a lot quietly to help the protesters. I'm not suggesting we should be virulently attacking the regime day after day. In a perfect world as far as I'm concerned, we'd make frequent high-level statements in support of the protesters' right to protest and raise questions about the validity of the election count that provoked the protests. This would let the protesters know they are not forgotten and hopefully get us good will from them if they win. Quietly, we'd be warning the Iranian regime to limit their response to prevent violence on a large scale. And we'd support civil institutions within Iran, through neutral bodies, that would support the protesters and make them more effective.  I've long since abandoned the hope that our CIA might be able to engineer a revolt. We might still come out with a win by doing nothing at all, but that's just counting on hope for change. I think a little bit of active (dare I say "smart") diplomacy would improve our odds.