Saturday, May 23, 2009

War of Attrition

Well, I can't say the Pakistanis aren't fighting the jihadis. They seem to be persisting in their offensive:


Pakistani security forces have entered the main town in a northwestern Taliban stronghold, engaging in fierce street battles Saturday as they tried to wrench the Swat Valley from militants, the army said.

Capturing Mingora town is critical to Pakistani efforts to regain the valley and prevent it from being a safe haven for insurgents who threaten the nuclear-armed Muslim nation's stability. It also could prove a major test for a military more geared toward conventional warfare on plains than bloody urban warfare.

The military operation has strong support from Washington, which wants Pakistan to root out insurgents who are using hide-outs in the northwest to plan attacks on U.S. troops across the border in Afghanistan. For now, it appears to have broad public support in Pakistan as well.


We need Pakistan to control their jihadis to keep Pakistan friendly. And we need them to complement our surge of troops in Afghanistan.

Up to now, the Pakistanis haven't had the stomach to persist long enough to defeat the jihadis. The government always cut a deal that let the jihadis consolidate their gains.

And after those failures, the jihadis have made advances. The result is that defeating the jihadis requires much more Pakistani persistence.

The Pakistanis clearly have more determination (bolstered by our cash bribe). But has it increased enough for the much tougher job they face? I'm not optmistic. And until the Pakistanis stop seeing India as their main military threat rather than their own jihadis, my optimism won't increase much.