Saturday, November 29, 2008

And Now the Real Crisis Begins

The Indians seem to have hunted down the last of the Mumbai attackers:

A 60-hour terror rampage that killed at least 195 people across India's financial capital ended Saturday when commandos killed the last three gunmen inside a luxury hotel while it was engulfed in flames.

Authorities searched for any remaining captives hiding in their rooms and began to shift their focus to who was behind the attacks, which killed 18 foreigners including six Americans.

A previously unknown Muslim group with a name suggesting origins inside India claimed responsibility for the attack, but Indian officials said the sole surviving gunman was from Pakistan and pointed a finger of blame at their neighbor and rival.


So now the Indians will count their losses, comfort the survivors, repair the physical damage, and analyze how to defeat a similar attack the next time.

Oh, and then there will be the growing anger after the shock wears off. Pakistan is the usual suspect for these sort of things. And even if Pakistan's security forces have no ties at all to the attackers, Pakistan's past support for such thugs will make it difficult for Pakistan to prove to India that Islamabad had no role in the attack.

India may well want revenge. And if India strikes Pakistan in retaliation, Pakistan's frontier offensive against the Taliban and al Qaeda will come to an end for at least a while, allowing the jihadis to recover and resume their level of support for jihadis inside Afghanistan.

Fighting the Long War has never been simple, with competing interests and allies with interests that diverge from ours in important ways. Keeping all these competing interests focused on fighting jihadis and not each other is like herding cats--cats who claw each other if provoked.

So now the real crisis on the subcontinent begins.