Friday, August 25, 2006

We Shall See

If war is an extension of politics by other means, as Clausewitz argued, then we cannot ignore politics when the war "ends."

Like I said earlier about the Hizbollah War, Israel clearly roughed up Hizbollah severely. But Hizbollah survived to boast of smiting Jews. Whether Israel wins in the long run depends on the UN and Lebanese attitudes toward what Hizbollah caused.

While I have little hope of the UN doing anything of use, perhaps the Lebanese people will deliver the final blow to Hizbollah (via Real Clear Politics) by turning on Nasrallah and his band of Iranian hand puppets:

Hezbollah had to declare victory for a simple reason: It had to pretend that the death and desolation it had provoked had been worth it. A claim of victory was Hezbollah's shield against criticism of a strategy that had led Lebanon into war without the knowledge of its government and people. Mr. Nasrallah alluded to this in television appearances, calling on those who criticized him for having triggered the war to shut up because "a great strategic victory" had been won.

The tactic worked for a day or two. However, it did not silence the critics, who have become louder in recent days. The leaders of the March 14 movement, which has a majority in the Lebanese Parliament and government, have demanded an investigation into the circumstances that led to the war, a roundabout way of accusing Hezbollah of having provoked the tragedy. Prime Minister Fuad Siniora has made it clear that he would not allow Hezbollah to continue as a state within the state. Even Michel Aoun, a maverick Christian leader and tactical ally of Hezbollah, has called for the Shiite militia to disband.


The winners and loser hang in the balance in this war yet. We must keep our attention focused to bend events our way and not let Hizbollah get up off the mat, brush themselves off, and uncrate new Iranian and Syrian weapons for the next round.

Taking out the mullahs would certainly end the problem at the source.