Thursday, August 03, 2006

Buying Time

The efforts to call for a ceasefire continue while Israel hits hard before they feel compelled to halt their attacks.

This race with time would not be so critical if the Israelis had not used their air power so widely in a futile effort to stop rocket attacks. The attacks have not stopped and yesterday the rockets were launched in record numbers.

But the attacks have been really ineffective:

In the last 24 hours, Hizbollah fired a record 231 rockets at five Israeli towns, killing one Israeli (a civilian) and wounding 49. The Hizbollah rocket campaign against Israel has been a colossal failure, and this is being noticed in the Arab world. So far, it appears that Hizbollah has to fire over a hundred rockets, to kill one Israeli civilian. This is not impressive, especially when you consider that Hizbollah is trying to kill Israeli civilians. Many of the rocket warheads have been modified (with the addition of hundreds of small metal balls) to enhance their anti-personnel effect.


My question is how much more time would Israel have had to hit Hizbollah if they hadn't gone after the rocket sites, killing innocents that Hizbollah ensured would be in the area (don't get me wrong, Hizbollah is the side violating the rules of war on this situation, not Israel. Israel has the right to shoot at attackers regardless of where they are)?

The Israelis would still be in shelters and the rockets would still fall, but the rockets would still be inaccurate. Israelis would clearly be the victims as a few Israeli civilians die in a campaign where on the other side of the border mostly Hizbollah terrorists get killed with few Lebanese civilians dying by accident.

Of course, if Israel did not go after the launchers, people would have assumed that air power could stop them. So maybe with a democracy clamoring for action this would not be possible in practice. Still, remember this. "Doing something" is not always wise.