What can the exercises tell us? Let's see:
So if you are playing the home addition of Where in the World is Carmen "Not Any Third Country" Sandiego, pick up your prize if you guess Taiwan as the target of this peaceful exercise in obliterating splittism.
Blockade and amphibious landings are practiced. So the unrest is an island with sea trade.
The Chinese are shooting as they come ashore so the government experiencing the problems that rattle the "peace" China seeks to impose clearly hasn't invited China in to restore peace.
The Chinese have a UN "mandate" in the scenario. Since we are unlikely to allow any such mandate because of our veto, this must mean an existing mandate. Since Taiwan is not "a third country" and is officially considered by the UN to be part of China, I assume that this is the so-called mandate.
Ethnic strife is the cause and given the footsy that old mainlander KMT types are playing with communists on the mainland, I can only assume the assumption is that some ethnic mainlanders on Taiwan will complain about the native Taiwanese and invite Peking in.
The Taiwanese really need to purchase some serious weaponry if they hope to remain free. Peking isn't bluffing. They are getting ready. They are getting set. And they will go in time.
This decade sucks.